Statistics show that the group of mid-cap stocks (VNMID) has the best price increase rate from the beginning of the year until now, equivalent to 19.4%. Meanwhile, the VN30 basket of stocks increased on par with the VN-Index at 9.9% and the group of small-cap stocks only increased by 4.2%.
Despite the increase compared to the beginning of the year as above, experts from ACBS Securities Company believe that the P/E valuation of VN30 is still much lower than the median for the 2020 - 2024 period (13.4). Meanwhile, both VNMID and VNSML are far ahead of the average P/E in the period 2023 - 2024 (VNMID's median is 13.3 and VNSML's is 12.2).
Therefore, ACBS believes that with profit prospects unlikely to make a breakthrough in the next 1-2 quarters, a large-scale adjustment for small and medium-cap stocks is appropriate. Opportunities in the second half of this year will lean towards the VN30 group (in which bank stocks account for a large proportion), especially in the context of the FED lowering interest rates and cash flow from foreign investors may participate again. back to the market.
Sharing the same opinion, An Binh Securities Company (ABS) believes that large-cap stocks in VN30 have a P/E valuation of 12.58x, much lower than small- and medium-cap stocks in VNMID. (16.73x) and VNSML (17.38x).
Regarding detailed prospects for industry groups, ACBS increased its expectations for the retail and consumer industries because the recovery momentum is expected to be stronger in the second half of the year. In contrast, ACBS lowered the short-term outlook for the securities industry from positive to neutral because business results in the second quarter of 2024 showed negative growth compared to the same period last year. The recovery from the bottom has stalled, while the industry's average valuation is peaking.
Similarly, the oil and gas industry is also less attractive due to the flat oil price outlook and the slow progress of the Block B O Mon project. However, some petroleum enterprises such as Vietnam Petroleum Group (code PLX) or Binh Son Refinery and Petrochemical (code BSR) can recover good profits in the second half of the year thanks to increases in output and gross margin. The seafood export industry also has a neutral outlook because output is increasing but prices are still declining, leading to disproportionate revenue growth. Rising selling and administrative costs eat away at profits.
Regarding buying points, experts from VNDIRECT Securities Company assess that in case the VN-Index retests the support zone of 1,200 points, it will be a good opportunity for long-term investors to consider increasing the proportion of stocks and Build an investment portfolio for the next 6 - 12 months. Prioritize industry groups with improved business prospects such as banking and import-export (textiles, seafood, iron and steel). However, investors should be careful to maintain a reasonable portfolio proportion (60-70% of stocks) and not use leverage to manage risk when in the short term the market is still at risk of strong fluctuations. .
