FDI sector and domestic enterprises promote machinery imports
In the first 5 months of 2026, total import and export turnover reached 445.12 billion USD, an increase of 25% compared to the same period last year. Exports reached 215.66 billion USD, an increase of 19.5%; imports reached 229.46 billion USD, an increase of 30.8%. The trade balance of goods in the first 5 months was a deficit of 13.8 billion USD.
Talking to Lao Dong Newspaper, Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet - lecturer at the University of Economics, Vietnam National University, Hanoi - said that for an export-oriented economy like Vietnam, the sharp increase in trade deficit in the first 5 months of the year is often cyclical.
Agreeing with this view, NCS Ngo Anh Nguyet, Institute of Banking Science Research, Banking Academy, assessed: "The trade deficit in the first 5 months of 2026 needs to be viewed in the general picture of trade and production, not just looking at the trade deficit figure alone. A noteworthy point is that imports are increasing faster than exports, but most of the imported goods are machinery, equipment, raw materials and inputs for production.
Input prices, FDI and public investment create pulling force together
According to Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet, 2026 has some specific factors that cause import value to increase sharply. The first reason is that the input material price level has increased compared to the same period and compared to the base price of a few years ago.
The second reason, according to Dr. Viet, comes from FDI capital flows. In the past 2 years, FDI capital flows into Vietnam have increased sharply. The highlight of this year is the completion and disbursement of these FDI capital sources into actual projects. On that basis, after 1-2 years of infrastructure construction, it is currently the construction phase at industrial parks and clusters. Bringing equipment and machinery into production naturally requires increased imports.
Statistics show that the FDI enterprise sector continues to play a large role in import and export activities. In the first 5 months of 2026, exports of FDI enterprises reached 171.47 billion USD, up 24.7% over the same period, accounting for 79.5% of the country's total export value. On the import side, this sector reached 165.20 billion USD, up 34.3%, accounting for 72% of the total import value.
The third pulling force is public investment. Dr. Viet pointed out: "In 2026, we have a public investment plan with a scale of nearly 1.1 million billion VND, including many key projects. This stage is also the time to carry out construction and installation, equipment, this is a boost for importing equipment. Except for projects that are too new such as high-speed railways, many projects using high-tech equipment will certainly create import value absorption, creating a temporary deficit.
Stepping stone for production and export growth
Breaking down the trade structure, Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet commented that this is a positive sign, expecting a boom in production and export growth at the end of the year.
According to experts, if the import flow focuses on machinery, equipment and production inputs, this could be a foundation to strengthen the growth prospects of the processing and manufacturing industry. In particular, high-value, sophisticated technology equipment will well support the long-term economic restructuring process.
However, Dr. Viet also noted that the economy needs to monitor some risks. The first is the risk of eroding the profit margin of enterprises when input import prices increase rapidly, while the selling price of finished products is not necessarily increasing correspondingly due to weak global demand. The second is pressure on the balance of foreign currency payments and exchange rates, especially when import demand for construction, industrial park development and public investment increases sharply in the short term.
To maintain production momentum, Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet recommends that the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the State Bank should proactively forecast and manage the exchange rate flexibly, ensuring smooth foreign currency supply for businesses importing input materials. According to Dr. Viet, it is necessary to soon have preferential corporate income tax policies or interest rate support for foreign investors using domestic suppliers that achieve the committed localization rate.
