Yen exchange rate today
According to Lao Dong, on June 18, the Japanese Yen (JPY) continued to depreciate against the US Dollar (USD), marking the fourth consecutive day of depreciation.
The USD/JPY exchange rate is currently fluctuating near its lowest level of the month, in the context of investors worrying that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will delay the next interest rate hike until early 2026.
In a recent policy meeting, the BoJ decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5% as expected. At the same time, the bank said it will reduce the pace of government bond purchases from April next year, reflecting caution against economic growth risks.
According to a Reuters survey, the majority of economists expect the BoJ to not raise interest rates this year, and may only start adjusting in the first quarter of 2026. This has caused the Yen to lose its appeal in the eyes of investors, especially in the context of Japan's domestic economy showing signs of stagnation.
Pressure from interest rate expectations and US-Japan trade negotiations
According to FXStreet, trade tensions between the US and Japan also put pressure on the Yen. At the recent G7 Summit, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and US President Donald Trump did not reach any agreement on the tariff issue. The two leaders agreed to assign ministers to continue negotiations, but admitted that the two sides still have many disagreements. In the immediate future, the deadline of July 9 - the mark where the US may increase tax in response - is making the market more cautious.
In addition, the newly released Japanese economic data is also unfavorable. Machinery orders - an important indicator of corporate investment - fell sharply by 9.1% in April, reversing the increase of 13% last month. The June Tankan survey shows that Japanese enterprises are increasingly pessimistic about the outlook for the next three months.
On the other hand, the US dollar faced pressure after data showed that US retail and industrial production sales in May both declined, still holding on to its position thanks to safe-haven demand. Investors are waiting for the results of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy meeting, which will end in the early morning of June 20 (Vietnam time), to find more clues on when the Fed may cut interest rates.
In the short term, the USD/JPY trend will depend largely on interest rate movements in the US and Japan, along with the trade situation between the world's two leading economies.
