Unexpected forecast about gasoline prices in the next management period

Thạch Lam |

According to forecasts, domestic gasoline prices in the next adjustment period may continue to increase, especially diesel prices will increase sharply.

World oil prices today (January 14) tended to decrease slightly but remained at a 4-month high as China and India sought new suppliers following the sanctions imposed by the US President Joe Biden's administration on Russian oil.

According to a survey by Lao Dong at 2:18 p.m. on January 14, the price of WTI oil was at 76.83 USD/barrel, down 0.61%. The price of Brent oil was at 80.41 USD/barrel, down 0.74%.

This follows a gain of about 2% in Monday's trading session, when the US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft on Friday, along with Surgutneftegas and 183 oil tankers. The move is expected to cost Russia billions of dollars a month, according to a US official.

"A large part of Russia's underground tanker fleet has been sanctioned, making it difficult for Russia and buyers to circumvent the G-7 price ceiling. These sanctions could result in a supply reduction of up to 700,000 barrels per day, thereby eliminating the surplus we expect this year," ING analysts said.

However, analysts also say the actual impact may be less, as buyers and sellers will continue to find ways to circumvent the sanctions.

Robert Rennie, head of commodities and carbon strategy at Westpac, said the measures could affect 800,000 barrels per day of Russian crude oil exports over a long period, along with about 150,000 barrels per day of diesel exports.

Brent crude could hit close to $85 a barrel, Rennie said, pointing out that an extension of OPEC+ production cuts would also weigh on prices.

Goldman Sachs said on Friday that Brent crude could hit $85 a barrel in the short term and $90 a barrel if Russian output falls at the same time as Iran's.

US President Joe Biden said prices would stabilize after the sanctions and were not intended to hit the pockets of US consumers.

According to this development, a representative of a petroleum business said that domestic petroleum prices will fluctuate according to the world petroleum situation. This person predicted that in the next price adjustment period, petroleum prices may continue to increase. In particular, diesel prices will increase very strongly.

Forecast price of RON 95-III gasoline increases by 280 VND/liter; E5 gasoline increases by 400 VND/liter; Diesel oil increases by 700 VND/liter.

Domestic retail prices of gasoline and oil on January 12, 2025 will be applied according to the price level at the management session on the afternoon of January 9 of the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade.

Accordingly, E5 RON 92 gasoline increased by 374 VND/liter, not higher than 20,431 VND/liter. RON 95 gasoline price increased by 273 VND/liter, not higher than 21,019 VND/liter.

Similarly, the prices of various types of oil also increased simultaneously. Of which, diesel increased by 488 VND/liter, not higher than 19,243 VND/liter; kerosene increased by 410 VND/liter, to 19,244 VND/liter and fuel oil increased by 83 VND/kg, not higher than 16,182 VND/kg.

Thạch Lam
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According to current market developments, it is forecasted that in the next price adjustment period, gasoline prices will continue to increase.

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Thạch Lam |

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