In 2024, the global oil market fluctuates strongly between the two halves, with prices rising sharply in the first half of the year, peaking in April due to factors such as OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical conflicts. Prices gradually decrease and stabilize in the second half of the year thanks to increased supply from the US and other major producers.
In the domestic market, Vietnam's gasoline prices closely follow world prices, with 50 adjustments, the number of increases and decreases is almost equal. Price fluctuations have directly affected CPI and production costs, thereby significantly affecting the economy and people's lives.
According to MSc. Doan Tien Quyet - Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI), closely following the developments of the crude oil market, the world petroleum market is also forecasted to not have too many fluctuations next year.
"The year 2025 is not expected to have too many unusual fluctuations, but will still be dominated and impacted by traditional factors such as economics, politics and energy policies of major countries.
The general trend is expected to revolve around the policy decisions of US President Donald Trump, with a focus on prioritizing the use of fossil fuels.
US policy is likely to promote re-industrialization and a greater focus on domestic production, reducing dependence on global supply chains. This could increase demand for energy consumption, especially crude oil and related products.
However, the US's growing use of fossil fuels could be accompanied by tariff measures aimed at protecting the domestic economy.
Major trading partners such as China and the BRICS36 bloc are expected to face pressure from new tax policies, somewhat recreating the image of the trade war in the previous term.
This pressure could slow down industrial production growth in China and India - the world's two largest manufacturing centers - thereby affecting gasoline consumption demand," said MSc. Doan Tien Quyet.
This expert predicts that in the global oil market, crude oil production in the US is expected to continue to increase sharply, increasing supply and putting downward pressure on oil prices. Meanwhile, OPEC+ production cut policies may be maintained to stabilize oil prices.
According to many reputable organizations such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC, the average oil price in 2025 is forecast to fluctuate between 80 - 85 USD/barrel, with relative stability due to balanced global supply and demand.
Global GDP growth in 2025 is forecast at 2.5-3%, up slightly from 2024 thanks to improved consumer demand in major markets. However, this growth is still subject to uncertainties such as high inflation and geopolitical tensions.
In addition, the trend of shifting to renewable energy and green energy is still accelerating, but its impact on the oil market is not really strong in the short term. Fossil energy, especially oil, will still play a leading role in the global energy structure, especially in developing countries and industries that find it difficult to replace traditional fuels.
"In this context, the world oil market in 2025 is forecast to maintain a state of relative balance, with changes mainly coming from the policies of major countries and global energy consumption trends. The world oil price is forecast to average from 80 - 90 USD/barrel for 2025" - MSc. Doan Tien Quyet assessed.
