There is still much room to promote public investment
In a new report published in mid-March 2025, UOB forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth for the whole year of 2025 to be 7%, with the assumption that GDP in the first quarter of 2025 will reach 7.1%. By 2026, the growth rate is expected to increase to 7.4%, thanks to the Government's measures to improve efficiency.
According to UOB experts, the Vietnamese economy continues to affirm its position in the region when the export value in 2024 accounts for about 90% of GDP, the second highest in ASEAN, after Singapore (174%) and surpassing Malaysia (69%), showing the important role of trade in growth momentum.
However, this high openness also makes Vietnam vulnerable to fluctuations and conflicts in international trade, especially in the context of US President Donald Trump stepping up measures to reduce trade deficits.
"Although a growth rate of 8% or higher is feasible, relying only on exports and production is not enough to create a strong breakthrough. Vietnam will need to boost capital investment, especially from the public investment sector, not only to boost growth but also to reduce risks when trade faces difficulties" - UOB recommended.
According to UOB, Vietnam's capital investment ratio has remained around 30% of GDP for more than a decade, significantly lower than China, where total investment capital has always been over 40% of GDP in the same period. This shows that Vietnam still has room to increase public investment, especially when the Government sets a double-digit growth target in the future.
Talking with Lao Dong, Associate Professor. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang - an economic expert assessed that UOB's forecast for Vietnam's GDP in 2025 is relatively cautious. However, there are also many positive views on Vietnam's growth prospects. In particular, compared to last year, UOB forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth to reach 6.4% in 2024 and will increase to 6.6% in 2025. Meanwhile, with the efforts of the whole country, Vietnam's GDP growth in 2024 has reached 7.09%.
In the context of US President Donald Trump stepping up trade deficit reduction, Vietnam has had timely response scenarios. Notably, on March 13, 2025, Vietnamese enterprises and US partners signed many cooperation agreements worth 4.15 billion USD. This move helps strengthen relations, reduce trade tensions and facilitate the export of Vietnamese goods to the US - Associate Professor. Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang commented.
Many organizations raise Vietnam's growth forecast
Previously, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) maintained a positive view on Vietnam's economic growth in 2025 and raised its forecast for 2025 to 6.6%, from 6.2%.
The ADB forecast is based on Vietnam's strong export performance, including manufacturing, solid foreign direct investment (FDI) performance, supported by the trend of adjusting global currencies and global commodity prices at a moderate level (including crude oil prices).
In the new economic update report released on March 12, the World Bank (WB) raised Vietnam's GDP growth forecast to 6.8% for 2025 and 6.5% for 2026.
According to Ms. Mariam J. Sherman - World Bank Director in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, Vietnam's economy is forecast to continue to grow strongly in the next two years.
