Gold buying demand from central banks in 2026 is significantly stronger than previous estimates and may continue to increase in the second half of the year, according to the latest assessment from Goldman Sachs commodity strategists.
In a report released last weekend, Goldman Sachs said it had adjusted the gold demand tracking model of central banks to reflect more fully the gaps in official trade data.
Previously in March, this investment bank raised its forecast of gold purchases by central banks to about 50 tons/month on a 12-month moving average, significantly higher than the old method of 29 tons.
Currently, Goldman Sachs forecasts that central banks will buy an average of about 60 tons of gold per month throughout 2026, thanks to the continued increase in demand for diversifying foreign exchange reserves amid prolonged geopolitical instability.
According to Goldman's analysis team, previous estimates underestimated the central bank's gold buying demand since August 2025, when UK trade data no longer fully reflects the amount of gold withdrawn from stockpiles in London.
This makes part of the gold buying activity of countries not fully recorded in official statistics.
Goldman Sachs believes that basic demand for gold is still very strong, and cited the bank's own survey and recent geopolitical developments as factors that could continue to boost gold demand from both the government and private investors in the near future.
This bank continues to maintain its forecast that gold prices will reach 5,400 USD/ounce by the end of 2026.
However, Goldman also warned that gold prices may still be under adjustment pressure in the short term if investors are forced to sell highly liquid assets to replenish cash flow during a period of strong market volatility.
At the end of January, when gold prices first exceeded the 5,000 USD/ounce mark, Goldman Sachs raised its gold price target for the end of 2026 to 5,400 USD/ounce.
Goldman Sachs experts, including Mr. Daan Struyven and Ms. Lina Thomas, believe that many individual investors buying gold to hedge against macroeconomic policy risks will continue to hold this position for a longer time.
According to them, unlike short-term defense strategies associated with specific events such as the 2024 US election, current gold buying demand is more related to long-term concerns about public debt, and global fiscal and monetary policy should tend to be more sustainable.
Goldman Sachs also believes that central banks in emerging economies are likely to continue to promote diversification of foreign exchange reserves to gold in the near future.
The trend of concern about currency devaluation is also driving physical gold purchases from wealthy investors and investment funds.
According to Goldman, the risk for gold price forecasts is still leaning more towards the possibility of a stronger increase than expected if private investors continue to increase the proportion of gold in their portfolios to hedge against global policy instability.
However, the bank also noted that if concerns related to global fiscal and monetary policy decrease significantly, the gold market may face profit-taking selling pressure from previous defensive positions.
In the 2026 commodity outlook report released at the end of last year, Goldman Sachs once identified gold as the most attractive option in the entire commodity group.
The bank also believes that increasing geopolitical, trade and technology competition is making the risk of disruption of commodity supply greater, thereby raising the defensive role of gold and strategic commodities in long-term investment portfolios.
