2025 still worried about power shortage
In a report on the electricity supply situation in 2025, Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN) said that there are still some potential risks for the Northern region during peak times at the end of the dry season (from May to July, if demand increases suddenly).
According to EVN, difficulties that may affect electricity supply are the possibility that natural gas supply in 2025 will decrease sharply compared to previous years.
Many new power projects are behind schedule. Accordingly, large hydropower sources have basically been built and put into operation, with only a few small-scale hydropower projects remaining.
Meanwhile, coal-fired thermal power will face many difficulties in arranging credit capital and project implementation will also have many potential risks after Vietnam made a strong commitment with the international community on the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 0 (Net Zero) by 2050.
Gas-fired thermal power, except for Nhon Trach 3 and 4 and Hiep Phuoc 1 Power Plant projects with a total capacity of about 2,824 MW that can be completed before 2030, the remaining LNG projects are unlikely to meet the completion schedule before 2030.
As for offshore wind power sources, the target is 6,000 MW by 2030, the time to implement a project takes 6-8 years, but currently the offshore wind power development mechanism is being developed by the Ministry of Industry and Trade with a pilot project along with synchronous mechanisms and policies to submit to the Government.
New renewable energy sources added in the current Power Plan VIII still need policy mechanisms from competent authorities to implement according to the plan.
3 growth scenarios
At the meeting on the 2025 electricity supply plan chaired by Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien on the morning of November 14, a representative of the National Electricity System and Market Operation Company Limited (NSMO) said that the total electricity production and import output of the entire system in 2024 is expected to reach nearly 309.7 billion kWh, an increase of about 10.09% compared to 2023. The peak capacity of the national electricity system will reach 48,955MW.
Based on the above forecast, NSMO has built 3 scenarios with growth rates of electricity production and import for 2025.
Scenario 1: 10.5% growth compared to 2024, reaching 342.3 billion kWh.
Scenario 2: growth of 13.3%, reaching 351 billion kWh. This scenario is based on the fact that in the first 6 months of 2024, electricity production and import of the whole system achieved a growth rate of 12.0%.
Scenario 3: 14.3% growth compared to 2024, reaching 354 billion kWh. This scenario is to prepare for extreme load growth.
NSMO believes that in scenario 1, the national power system will provide enough electricity for socio-economic development and people's needs throughout 2025.
In scenario 2, according to NSMO, the national power system will meet electricity supply for most of the year. However, it will be necessary to mobilize maximum coal-fired thermal power sources, domestic gas sources, and highly mobilized LNG and oil sources.
As for the extreme load growth scenario of 14.3%, in case of overlapping factors such as poor hydrology, extreme load increase, incidents at coal-fired thermal power plants in the North during the peak dry season, the national power system, in addition to mobilizing maximum power sources as in scenario 2, may also have to adjust the load, as well as mobilize customer diesel sources during the period from April to June.
With the above scenario, Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien requested that the planning process should consider what impacts electricity production and supply.
It is necessary to consider factors such as expected economic growth of more than 7%, then electricity growth must reach 11% or more (baseline scenario), and peak dry season months must increase even higher.
It is necessary to consider the growth in electricity demand in 2025 and the influencing factors such as: In 2024, disbursement of foreign investors will reach about 40 billion USD, which will lead to a rapid increase in electricity demand, increasing sharply in 2025.
