Many scenarios for growth goals
After the first 6 months of the year, Ho Chi Minh City is entering an acceleration phase to complete the GRDP growth target for the whole year 2026. Although the world economic context is still volatile, experts believe that the city still has room for development if it effectively utilizes investment, consumption, production and innovation motivations.
Ms. Nguyen Truc Van - Director of the Center for Simulation and Socio-Economic Forecasting (Ho Chi Minh City Development Research Institute - HIDS), said that to achieve this year's growth target, Ho Chi Minh City is forced to accelerate in the third and fourth quarters.
To achieve the growth target in the last months of the year, Ho Chi Minh City needs to synchronously implement many solutions such as promoting public investment disbursement, promoting industrial production and exports, stimulating consumer demand for services, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) and private investment, and accelerating the development of the digital economy and innovation.
According to calculations, to complete the 10.2% growth target for the whole year, the total social investment capital of Ho Chi Minh City needs to reach about 1.18 million billion VND. This resource not only comes from public investment but also requires strong participation from the FDI sector and non-state enterprises. Representatives of the Ho Chi Minh City Institute for Development Studies (HIDS) said that in the current context, capital is still the most important driving force for growth, while consumption may be affected by increased price pressure.
Ms. Van also expects that the Special Urban Law and the new planning of Ho Chi Minh City, when implemented on schedule, will create conditions for many projects to be launched, thereby supplementing the growth momentum for the city in the coming time.
Efforts to achieve double-digit goals
From a long-term perspective, Prof. Dr. Nguyen Thi Canh (University of Economics and Law, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City) believes that to achieve double-digit growth, firstly, Ho Chi Minh City must promote high and sustainable growth rates. The factor promoting high and sustainable growth is to increase the contribution rate of total factor productivity (TFP), which includes three basic components: technology, knowledge and institutions. First, technological innovation or innovation means investing in innovation and creativity, Ho Chi Minh City needs to shift from the "imitation" stage to the creative and new invention stage.
Second, to have innovation and new inventions, Ho Chi Minh City needs to have many people with high level of knowledge, i.e., creating a flow of knowledge capital. Although the human resource education and training system of Vietnam in general, and Ho Chi Minh City in particular, has been improved in recent years, the quality of human resources has not met development requirements.
Third, the bottleneck for investment and development in Vietnam in general and Ho Chi Minh City in particular is still institutions. Therefore, it is necessary to change and reform institutions to solve the current bottleneck such as changing regulations that are no longer appropriate, creating breakthrough mechanisms for development.
Fourth, solutions to adapt to external shocks. To respond to this shock, it is necessary to develop a scenario for responding to geopolitical conflicts, ensuring energy and raw material supply; have price stabilization measures to support businesses, and timely support policies from the State.
To realize the goals in the last 6 months of the year, representatives of Ho Chi Minh City Statistics said that the city needs to focus on many key groups of solutions. In which, priority is given to accelerating the progress and disbursement of public investment capital, especially key infrastructure projects with connectivity and spillover effects.
At the same time, Ho Chi Minh City will promote consumer stimulus programs, centralized promotions, trade promotion and domestic market development; organize large-scale trade, cultural, and tourism events to promote aggregate demand.
The city also strengthens the monitoring of price movements, especially gasoline and oil prices, raw materials, food, and essential goods; promotes the effectiveness of the Market Stabilization Program to ensure supply, avoiding shortages or unusual price increases.
Along with that are solutions to remove difficulties for businesses in terms of capital, production premises, administrative procedures, input costs and consumption markets, creating conditions for businesses to maintain operations, expand production, and improve competitiveness.
Ho Chi Minh City will continue to improve the investment and business environment in a transparent and open direction, promote digital transformation, apply science and technology and innovation. This is considered an important foundation to improve labor productivity, improve growth quality and create sustainable development momentum, contributing to helping the city complete its growth target in 2026.
