The corporate bond market is facing significant pressure as the amount of maturing bonds in the coming time is quite large. According to VIS Rating, about 235,000 billion VND of bonds will mature in the next 12 months. In the context of market liquidity continuing to tighten, interest rates remaining at a high level, capital cost pressure on issuing enterprises is still present.
Some floating bonds may even have their interest rates adjusted to 14-16%/year, limiting businesses' access to new capital sources.
Interest rate pressure is forecast not to cool down soon. VCBS analysis expert group forecasts that bond interest rates will continue to increase slightly on the current high foundation. Notably, about 52.44% of the value of outstanding corporate bonds applies a floating or combined interest rate mechanism. Therefore, market interest rate fluctuations are quite directly transmitted to bond interest rates and business capital costs.
Meanwhile, new issuance activities are forecast to continue to be maintained in the last months of the year. According to OCBS Securities Joint Stock Company, the issuance value of corporate bonds is likely to continue to be positive, but the issuance structure will still focus on organizations with good financial foundations.
In which, the banking group still needs to issue bonds to supplement medium and long-term capital, improve capital adequacy ratios and support credit growth. For the real estate group, issuance activities mainly aim to refinance, restructure debt and prepare resources for projects with clearer legal status.
However, the ability to reduce mobilization costs quickly is still limited. "Coupons are difficult to reduce quickly because the market still requires higher risk compensation after the market restructuring phase, especially for businesses with large leverage or cash flow that has not recovered sustainably," said OCBS expert.
Besides the immediate pressure of maturity and interest rates, the development room of the corporate bond market is still very large.
Regarding market size, Mr. Nguyen Khac Hai - Director of the Law and Compliance Control Division, SSI Securities Joint Stock Company - said that the current capital market size of Vietnam is only equivalent to about 15-17% of GDP. In which, the corporate bond market only accounts for about 6-7% of GDP, still small compared to the capital needs of the economy.
According to Mr. Hai, after many policy adjustments, the legal framework for the corporate bond market has gradually become more balanced between risk control requirements and creating development conditions.
The new regulations require businesses to use capital in accordance with the announced plan, raise conditions for professional individual investors, increase the role of credit ratings and clarify the responsibilities of each participating issuer.
However, as the legal framework gradually improves, the decisive factor still lies in the implementation stage. Businesses must mobilize capital for effective projects, use capital for the right purpose, fully fulfill the obligation to disclose information and ensure the ability to repay principal and interest.
Only when the legal framework is implemented seriously, transparently and synchronously, can investor confidence be sustainably restored, thereby bringing the corporate bond market back to its role as a medium and long-term capital channel for the economy," Mr. Hai assessed.
