As warned by some stock analysts, the stock market has begun to show a correction after a series of upward days. In yesterday's trading session, March 13, the market had a trading session that declined sharply towards the end of the session after 5 consecutive increases.
Market liquidity is still kept at a high level when the trading value matched on HoSE reached over VND23,100 billion, the highest in 8 months since mid-July 2024. In all three exchanges, the trading value was recorded at over VND 26,700 billion, equivalent to over USD 1 billion.
In the coming trading sessions, many experts still believe that there may be some fluctuations and short-term adjustments with important support in the 1,300 point area. As long as this support of 1,300 points has not been lost, the upward trend in the medium and long term will still be preserved.
Explaining the sharp decline in the market, Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Director of Strategic Investment of DG Capital, commented that the market has had 7 consecutive weeks of increase at the bottom, so the fluctuations are normal. In the cautious scenario, the 1,310 point mark will be the support level to maintain the increase. If the index breaks below this threshold, further technical adjustments may occur.
However, with supporting factors from cash flow, market sentiment and macro platforms, the corrections during this period are still an opportunity to buy. Technical adjustments will be an opportunity to accumulate stocks, especially when market sentiment has stabilized significantly. Choosing stocks well in the corrections not only helps limit the risk of deep decline, but also optimizes profits when the uptrend continues.
Regarding the medium-term vision, experts from HSC Securities Company believe that exchange rate pressure will have an impact on the stock market. The basic scenario in the coming time is that the USD/VND exchange rate will increase within the control range, to balance the loose monetary policy and the goal of macro stability. This means the possibility of exchange rate fluctuations, causing temporary pressure on the financial market, leading to technical adjustments on the VN-Index.
Looking back at data from 2019, the large corrections of the VN-Index due to exchange rate fluctuations are often not too strong, if no "black-cheating" event occurs. In cases where the market is under pure pressure from exchange rates, the VN-Index mainly adjusts 7 - 9% compared to the most recent peak.
"With the context of the economy gradually improving, the probability of a "black giant" event is low. Therefore, if the market adjusts technically due to exchange rate factors, the possibility of a strong adjustment is not high. History also proves that the adjustment of 7 - 9% from the most recent peak is a reasonable scenario. Accordingly, investors can consider buying when the VN-Index adjusts to this level, HSC experts commented.
