The Vietnamese stock market is entering an important transformation phase after FTSE Russell officially confirmed its upgrade to the secondary emerging market, effective from September 2026.
However, the reaction of foreign capital after this milestone shows a more complicated picture than expected.
Instead of a strong reversal, the stock market is recording a fairly large selling volume from the group of foreign investors.
In general, in April, foreign investors net sold more than 227 million units, with a total net selling value corresponding to 13,468.6 billion VND, a fairly strong decrease of nearly 50% in volume and a decrease of 23.1% in value compared to March.In which, this group still net bought on the HNX and UPCoM exchanges, but continued to maintain a strong net selling position on the HOSE exchange.
Specifically, on the HOSE exchange, foreign investors net sold 242.6 million units, corresponding to a net selling value of 13,785.5 billion VND.A noteworthy point is that while the general index recorded a fairly good increase in the month thanks to Vingroup stocks, foreign investors strongly profit-taken these stocks.
In which, foreign investors net sold the strongest VHM stock with a volume of more than 46.2 million units, a corresponding net selling value of 5,858.5 billion VND.Followed by bluechip stocks including FPT being net sold nearly 2,811 billion VND and VIC being In April, foreign investors also sold quite strongly bank stocks, with a series of stocks in the top 10 stocks being net sold the strongest, such as VCB being net sold by more than 1,293 billion VND, BID being net sold by 932 billion VND, HDB being net sold by 705.6 billion VND, VPB and ACB being both net sold by more than 690 billion VND, MBB being net sold by 573 billion VND.
In the opposite direction, HPG shares were the focus of foreign investors' buying with a net buying volume of 53.8 million units, with a corresponding net buying value of more than 1,520 billion VND.
On the HNX exchange, in April, foreign investors net bought 10.25 million units, with a total net buying value of nearly 295 billion VND.
Among them, the focus of this block's buying was the pair SHS and IDC with net buying values of 202.5 billion VND and 146.7 billion VND respectively.The reasons are said by experts to depend on the global macroeconomic context.
High oil prices, stronger USD and long-term interest rate differences
The exchange rate factor continues to be an important variable, as USD investors still need to manage profit conversion risks in the context of USD/VND fluctuations - because exchange rate stability is always the first risk filter in international portfolio allocation.
However, a positive trend is gradually forming that foreign direct investors have begun to disburse selectively, focusing on large-cap stocks with high liquidity, good governance and clear profit prospects.
Net selling activities are mainly concentrated in some individual stocks, especially in the real estate group and multi-industry corporations, showing that this is a portfolio restructuring process rather than widespread capital withdrawal.
The current period should not be seen as a withdrawal of foreign investors, but as a portfolio repositioning process, shifting from short-term speculative cash flow, chasing market trends to long-term confidence-based capital flows.
According to calculations by the research group from EBC Financial Group, foreign capital flows are likely to reverse more clearly from the second half of 2026, according to the disbursement cycle of both passive and active capital flows.
Passive ETF capital flows associated with FTSE Emerging Market indices are estimated at about 1 - 1.5 billion USD.However, this capital flow will not flow into the market immediately but will be allocated according to a roadmap from September 2026 to September 2027, with rates of 10%, 20%, 35%, 35% respectively.This is a roadmap disbursement process instead of creating a liquidity boost in the short term.
