The stock market fluctuated last week amid a cautious sentiment. Trading was gloomy with low liquidity in the sessions. Information from the Fed on the interest rate policy orientation in 2025 prevented Vietnamese stocks from escaping selling pressure like most markets in the world, pushing the index down sharply in the 5th session.
At the end of the trading week, the VN-Index decreased by 5.07 points (-0.40%) to 1,257.5 points. The matched volume this week decreased by more than 9% compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, foreign investors net sold more than VND 1,324 billion on the HOSE floor, extending the net selling for the third consecutive week.
The notable point last week was that VN-Index broke through the strong support level of 1,260 points, corresponding to the 200-day MA, showing a more overwhelming negative trend.
However, the decline that caused VN-Index to break through the MA200 mark was somewhat affected by sentiment from the US market. Moreover, at the end of the session, VN-Index recovered and significantly narrowed the decline, so the previous upward trend reversal did not have enough momentum to confirm.
In terms of impact, HVN, VNM and FPT stocks were the most positive contributors to the market. Meanwhile, the total of the 10 most negative stocks only took away more than 1 point from the general index, led by HPG and BVH.
Notably, on the HOSE floor, YEG shares of Yeah1 Group Joint Stock Company increased the most as they are benefiting from the media effect from the recently held Concert “Call Me by Fire”.
This stock recorded four consecutive sessions of ceiling price increase in the last week. Investors' excitement also came from the session on December 19 when YEG had more than 13.5 million units matched, the highest level since listing. The stock price hit its highest level since April 2021. Other stocks that increased were mostly small and medium-sized stocks, with high short-term speculation.
The issue that investors are most concerned about now is whether cash flow will soon return to the stock market in the early stages of 2025 based on attractive valuations, corporate profit growth on the stock exchange, and the upgrade process?
According to a report recently published by the Research Division of MB Securities Joint Stock Company (MBS Research), with the view that with efforts to reform institutions and streamline the executive apparatus to prepare for a strong development cycle, Vietnam is ready to enhance its strategic competitive position in the global value chain.
MBSResearch believes that there will be 6 main themes shaping the 2025 macro outlook, including:
Firstly, manufacturing still maintains a positive outlook in the context of continued recovery of global demand and positive domestic investment demand. Moreover, this period is different as Vietnam is ready to improve its position in the value chain, shifting to the service production sector with higher added value.
Second, boosting public investment, focusing on large infrastructure projects, will ensure growth as well as strengthen Vietnam's competitiveness in attracting foreign investment.
Third, inflation in 2025 is not a major concern, creating some room for the State Bank to launch policies to boost domestic consumption and investment.
Fourth, the uncertainty about Trump 2.0's executive policies as well as fifth, the unknown of China's economic recovery can create both opportunities and challenges for Vietnam.
Sixth, although the global easing cycle has begun, Vietnam's fiscal policy room is no longer too large due to exchange rate pressure.
MBS Research estimates that listed companies' profit growth will reach 18-19% in the 2025-2026 period, contributed by the stability of the banking and retail sectors, as well as the recovery from the bottom of the real estate and construction sectors.
In addition, Vietnam is getting closer to the opportunity to join the group of emerging stock markets. Combining the opportunity and risk factors, the VN-Index is forecast to reach 1,400-1,420 points in 2025, based on the forecast of 18% profit growth for the whole market and P/E in the range of 12.5 - 13x, MBS Research forecasts.
