Ending the trading week from July 6-10, the VN-Index recorded a decrease of 33.74 points, equivalent to -1.81% to 1,828.34 points. Market liquidity this week improved slightly compared to the previous week, but is still 23% lower than the 20-week average.
Accumulated in the past week, the average matched order volume on the HOSE floor reached 641 million shares/session, an increase of more than 3% compared to the previous week, the average trading value reached 17,041 billion VND/session, a slight increase of less than 1%.
The focus of the market last week was PNJ shares falling into the eye of the storm with information about the smuggling of Mr. Dang Ngoc Thao - former Director of P-Lab Company, a member company of Phu Nhuan Jewelry Joint Stock Company (PNJ), causing this stock to be strongly affected and fall deeply. In which, the trading session on July 8 recorded a record high matched order level with more than 25.6 million units.
After this spectacular "rescue" session, PNJ shares once again "plummeted to the bottom" in the last session of last week. This stock fell near the floor in the July 10 session, thereby falling to 46,600 VND/share, the lowest in more than 1 year, since the beginning of May last year. The corresponding market capitalization is still less than 24,000 billion VND.
In the context of stock prices continuously falling deeply, PNJ's Board of Directors has just announced that on August 17th, it will finalize the list of registered shareholders to get written opinions on the plan to buy back treasury shares. PNJ said that the repurchase of treasury shares is one of the solutions that the Board of Directors is considering to implement in the current context, showing confidence in the company's operating foundation as well as commitment to accompany the long-term interests of shareholders. However, before being able to implement the new treasury share repurchase plan, PNJ needs to handle 169,559 treasury shares currently owned according to regulations.
Returning to the stock market developments in July, some experts mentioned 5 important variables to monitor, including the Fed's moves, the US CPI index and USD interest rates; the progress of the FTSE upgrade story; the progress of implementing Circular No. 25 of the State Bank and public investment disbursement; USD/VND exchange rate fluctuations and foreign capital flows; business results for the second quarter of 2026.
Among them, the three issues that need to be closely monitored in the Q2 reporting season are banks with credit growth indicators, NIM, bad debts, provision expenses and asset quality; securities with a focus on brokerage revenue, margin lending, proprietary trading, investment banking and Q3 liquidity prospects; consumption - retail - industry - logistics - technology verifying the true growth story of the domestic economy.
In July, VN-Index is forecast to fluctuate in the range of 1,820 - 1,920 points, with the upward momentum still mainly coming from large-cap and banking groups, accompanied by liquidity that cannot recover soon. Investors believe that the second half of 2026 cannot apply the "all-in" strategy or bet on the simultaneous increase of the entire market because cash flow will be strongly differentiated.
Instead, the optimal strategy is to combine a core portfolio including businesses with clear profit growth, healthy balance sheets, benefiting from credit/public investment/upgrade, good liquidity and suitable for organizational cash flow; and a tactical portfolio including stocks with separate quarterly investment highlights, business results or policy developments.
