Although investors expect that the upcoming business results reporting season will open up new opportunities when it is forecast that the total market profit in Q2/2026 may increase by about 15% compared to the same period, however, the diễn biến on the stock market is not as expected in the first week sessions of July.
In today's trading session (July 10), selling pressure spread from early on, causing VN-Index to have another adjustment session, in the context that liquidity has not improved much. At the end of the trading session, VN-Index decreased by 12.36 points (-0.67%), to 1,828.34 points. Total trading volume reached more than 592.7 million units, worth 17,013 billion VND. Thus, at the end of the trading week from July 6-10, the VN-Index recorded a decrease of 33.74 points.
According to seasonal factors, historical statistics show that VN-Index recorded an increase in July of nearly 70% of the years since 2011. However, profit-taking pressure after the business results announcement season may still cause short-term fluctuations to increase. July 2026 is also expected to maintain a positive trend thanks to the resonance of many supporting factors, although the room for increase may no longer be too strong after the recent recovery.
Q2/2026 business results are also expected to be an important fulcrum for the market. Profits are likely to grow widely in the banking, retail, construction materials, rubber and food - beverage groups. Meanwhile, some enterprises in the fertilizer and oil and gas group may be under pressure when having to make provisions for inventory after the sharp drop in oil prices.
In the strategy report for the second half of 2026, BIDV Securities Company (BSC) said that if the impact of the Vingroup stock group is removed, the index will only be 1,742 points, equivalent to a decrease of about 7% compared to the beginning of the year. According to BSC, this shows that the market's upward momentum is still mainly concentrated in a few large-cap stocks, similar to the diễn biến of 2025. At that time, VN-Index increased by 43% but the excluding Vingroup group only increased by about 16%.
Regarding valuation, this securities company said that most of the market is in an attractive zone. If VIC and VHM groups are excluded, VN-Index is currently trading with a P/E ratio of about 12 times. This is considered a relatively attractive valuation zone for long-term investors. At the same time, up to 9/15 industry groups are recording a projected P/E ratio in 2027 10-20% lower than in 2026, reflecting the potential for profit growth in the following years.
However, BSC believes that the most important factor to monitor in the coming time is liquidity. According to BSC's analysis, liquidity in the interbank market still maintains a tense state as the credit demand of large corporations increases, while capital in the system is still limited. This may cause many stocks to continue to trade below their fair value and stock prices not fully reflect the improvement of the business foundation.
Although assessing liquidity is still the biggest risk, BSC said that the market still has many factors that can create a turning point in the period from the end of 2026 to 2027.
In addition to business results, the market in the period from September 2026 to September 2027 may also be supported by two important drivers: market upgrade progress and state capital divestment activities.
BSC estimates that if the upgrade process takes place as expected, the market may attract about 1.4 billion USD of investment capital in the period from September 2026 to September 2027. In addition, the state-owned enterprise divestment process and large-scale capital increase issuances help increase the quantity of quality goods on the market.
