After 7 consecutive increasing sessions, helping VN-Index enter the old peak area of 1,290 - 1,300 points, increased selling pressure in recent sessions has caused the market to shake. In yesterday's trading session, July 12, selling pressure continued to increase on a large scale, causing VN-Index to continue to adjust slightly. Notably, liquidity is quite low because transactions on the general market are "sad". In the context of weak cash flow participation, the unfavorable performance of key stock groups caused VN-Index to end the session down more than 3 points and stop at 1,280.75 points. Liquidity only reached more than 15,000 billion VND.
According to analysts from Mirae Asset Vietnam Securities Company, the market's lack of strong gains could largely be influenced by the weak trading performance of large-cap stocks in the US. banking and real estate groups. Although other industry groups may record a more positive outlook, the overall impact of these groups is still limited compared to the market capitalization proportion of up to 51% of banks and real estate.
Accordingly, although the banking industry recorded accelerated credit growth in June (reaching 6%, while the first 5 months of the year only reached 2.4%), this development will be difficult to react to. reflected in second quarter profits.
On the other hand, the outlook for the real estate industry has not really improved while waiting for clearer information about the early application of three important laws: Land Law 2024, Housing Law 2023 and Real Estate Business Law. Real estate 2023.
Therefore, in the coming sessions, VN-Index may lack a large capitalization industry group to lead the way into a new increasing cycle, currently still in a "recovery" state, but leaning more positively.
With developments in exchange rates, interest rates and cash flows in the stock market over the past period, it can be seen that an increase exceeding 1,300 points for the VN-Index in the second half of July is feasible. This is also a milestone to support market sentiment, experts from Mirae Asset Vietnam said.
Meanwhile, commenting on the market in July, Maybank Securities Company said that difficulties for the stock market will continue. The VN-Index is likely to fluctuate below 1,300 points in July 2024 due to net selling by foreign investors, pressure on the VND and increasing interest rates in Vietnam.
However, Maybank Securities Company expects that foreign investors' net selling cash flow will gradually decrease in the coming months and will return to net buying from the second half of 2024 thanks to the outstanding growth of the US economy and the fact that foreign funds ETFs focusing on Vietnam reduce net absorption pressure.
Maybank Securities Company maintains the view that a 100 basis point interest rate increase will not derail Vietnam's economic recovery and maintains the VN-Index target at 1,420 points.
