VN-Index has just recorded its first week of recovery after a 4-week consecutive decline thanks to a clear improvement in bottom-fishing demand, opening up expectations that the index will head towards higher resistance zones.
At the end of the week, VN-Index closed at 1,824.53 points, up 1.84% compared to the end of the previous week, while the average trading value on HOSE increased to about 15,000 billion VND/session.
Cash flow is mainly concentrated in the Vingroup group (VIC, VHM, VRE) with the support of securities and banking groups.Meanwhile, the fact that foreign investors continue to net sell at large values is a concern for investors.
Assessing the market liquidity, some opinions believe that, for the recovery momentum to be truly sustainable, the market really needs widespread consensus and a more breakthrough boost from large cash flow.
DSC Securities Company set out a number of conditions, which are: first, the market must have a strong enough shake-off with explosive liquidity.
Second, cash flow must focus on the large-cap group. After the bottom-fishing phase, money usually goes in a fairly clear order. First is the VN30 group, especially bank stocks leading the market. Next comes the securities, steel and medium-cap enterprise group. Finally, when the excitement spreads, cash flow will find small stocks or speculative stocks. This is a rule that has repeated in most large growth cycles.
Third, a strong enough macro story is needed to support. In other words, large cash flow always needs a strong enough catalyst to maintain confidence in the medium and long term.
If compared with the above three conditions, according to the assessment of DSC Securities Company, it can be seen that the current market still does not fully converge the elements of a large upward wave.
Currently, the market is following a sideways scenario with liquidity maintained at a low level and gradually decreasing. Investors have not sold strongly but are not ready to disburse.
In the past week, many stocks have increased sharply and generated quite good short-term profits, but cash flow has focused on medium and small-sized banks and mid-cap securities stocks.Meanwhile, the banking group leading the market has not yet attracted enough cash flow.This shows that current cash flow is more short-term speculative than institutional cash flow is building a new upward trend.
The current macroeconomic context is also less favorable than expected.The market is witnessing a rather tough stance from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).Despite keeping interest rates unchanged in the June session, the Fed is still signaling caution about inflation.Expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 have therefore weakened significantly.
This is not a positive signal for risky assets globally.Vietnam wants to maintain a low interest rate level but it is difficult to go against the general trend.Therefore, the monetary environment is not really supporting the stock market.
Commenting on the trading trend of the market in the new week, Kafi Securities Company believes that the 1,780 - 1,800 point zone initially plays a supporting role.Although the recovery momentum still depends significantly on the pillar stock group, the general price level has been raised and selling pressure is maintained at a low level.
In the short term, VN-Index may experience fluctuations to retest the support zone of 1,800 - 1,810 points after a rapid recovery. However, the recovery trend is still maintained as cash flow continues to circulate between industry groups.
