In the past trading week, VN-Index is in a state of struggling around the 1,900-point zone with short-term profit-taking pressure. The market recorded alternating ups and downs, with the focus being the circulation of cash flow between large-cap stock groups.
Analysts believe that profit-taking pressure after 4 consecutive weeks of increase is not surprising. By industry group, most industries recorded positive growth, except for real estate.
The developments of VN-Index in the new week are assessed by experts to be placed in the context that the market has just entered the historical peak and is in the process of finding a new balance point.
Some experts believe that a reasonable scenario in the short term is that VN-Index fluctuates and accumulates, there may be some corrections before returning to the 1,900 zone challenge more sustainably. In the current price range, cash flow tends to slow down to observe, especially when the recent increase mainly comes from the pillar stock group.
A correction phase with reduced liquidity will be more technical than negative, because this helps the market absorb profit-taking supply and establish a new price base.
The possibility of VN-Index conquering the 1,900 point mark again will depend heavily on the quality of cash flow. If the upward momentum returns with a better spread between industry groups, especially groups with a reasonable profit base and valuation, the probability of surpassing the peak will be improved.
Conversely, if the index mainly increases thanks to pulling up its pillar while most stocks are sideways or adjusting, the market will likely need more accumulation time to find a balance point.
Regarding the market liquidity story, it can be seen that the flow of money into the market follows the story of a new growth engine from the state-owned enterprise sector after Resolution 79 was promulgated, this is a new and attractive story, with high spillover effects and will have a profound impact on the long-term growth prospects of the state-owned enterprise sector.
Therefore, there are many reasons to believe that this cash flow has sustainability as the foundation for a market uptrend cyclical that lasts for several months.
This is seen when liquidity has increased sharply in the past two weeks, especially profit-taking pressure has shown signs of increasing in the past trading week, but this is just a portfolio restructuring move, meaning that cash flow will quickly shift to other stock groups instead of withdrawing from the market.
From a trading perspective, when the index approaches a new peak, investors often increase the trading frequency, in fact, HoSE liquidity in some sessions is over 40,000 billion VND, much higher than the 20-session average. It can be said that high liquidity is a positive sign, but the new week needs to observe the quality of liquidity (increasing in the session/expansion improves), instead of just looking at numbers alone.
In the context that VN-Index is moving around the historical peak zone and the market tends to clearly differentiate, investors should prioritize a cautious and flexible strategy in the short term. Maintaining a reasonable ratio between stocks and cash is necessary, avoiding chasing buying sentiment when the market increases sharply in exciting sessions.
The most suitable strategy for the current period of investors is to closely monitor cash flow movements to seek opportunities in each stock group. Usually, the market will have positive developments before the long holiday with expectations for the orientation plans at the beginning of the year, so proactively adapting to cash flow movements along with combining basic factors is a suitable strategy in this period instead of cautiously worrying about liquidity factors.
