A year after President Donald Trump's new administration began its term, the US economy shows significant resilience to high interest rates and many international instabilities. Data released in 2025 reflects growth rates exceeding forecasts, along with stable signals from the labor market and a downward trend in inflation.
US GDP accelerates in 2025 with breakthrough in the third quarter of 2025
According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), US real GDP increased by 3.8% in the second quarter of 2025, before increasing sharply to about 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025 at an annualization rate. This is the fastest increase since 2023 and significantly higher than previous forecasts by economists, who expected the third quarter growth to only revolve around 3.3%. Many international news agencies such as AP News and Reuters assessed the increase in the third quarter as a "bright spot" in the US economic picture, reflecting the ability to maintain the expansion momentum even though borrowing costs are still high.
This growth rate comes from three main factors: stable consumer spending recovery, improved business investment, and increased exports as world demand improves. This is a growth component similar to the strong economic recovery cycles of the US in the past, showing a relatively uniform spread between the consumer, manufacturing and trade sectors.
Consumption and labor market continue to be growth pillars
Consumer spending accounting for more than 60% of US GDP continues to be the foundation of growth in 2025. BEA recorded household spending increasing by about 3.5% in the third quarter of 2025, especially strongly in tourism - entertainment, food and durable goods services. The high-income group is the main driving force of this trend thanks to the asset market recovering, leading to improved consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, the middle and low-income group still faces pressure from living expenses, especially housing and loan interest, causing this group's consumption growth rate to slower.
The labor market continues to remain stable even though the recruitment rate is slowing down. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the unemployment rate increased slightly to about 4.4% by the end of 2025, but still fluctuates in the historical low range. Overall, the market shows that human demand in service industries is still maintained, contributing to stabilizing aggregate demand of the economy.
Inflation in the US has decreased significantly compared to previous years. According to consumer price data, the average CPI in 2025 is about 2.7%, significantly lower than initial expectations. This inflation slowdown trend is considered an important factor in helping to increase actual purchasing power and improve monetary policy management expectations for the following year.
International experts raise US economic growth forecast for 2026
The outlook for the US economy in 2026 is showing more bright signals after the positive indicators of 2025. A survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal with 74 economists in early January 2026 showed that the real GDP growth forecast for the US in 2026 was raised to about 2.2%, higher than previous cautious forecasts. This is not official data but expert expectations, but is an important basis reflecting the positive psychology of the market.
This increase reflects many fundamental factors: consumption of the high-income group is forecast to continue to increase as the asset market stabilizes; the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) considers reducing interest rates in 2026 if inflation continues to hover in the low zone; and new tax policies are expected to help households receive larger tax refunds in the upcoming tax season. In addition, the fact that many states have increased minimum wages since the beginning of 2026 is a factor reinforcing the actual income of low-income workers.
Although the labor market at the end of 2025 showed signs of slowing down, many experts believe that this period is highly likely to hit the bottom of the slowdown cycle and the job market may stabilize again in 2026. When combined with declining inflation and stable purchasing power, the growth prospects of the US next year are assessed as more positive and sustainable than previous forecasts.
