The stock market in the past week continued the state of "green shell, red core", the increase mainly came from the pulling force of some large-cap stocks. VN-Index closed the first week of June at 1,838.9 points, down 1.32% compared to the previous week.
After failing at the historical peak area and losing important support levels, the market is moving into a correction phase and seeking new balance points. Notably, weakening pressure is no longer concentrated in a few individual groups but has spread wider, as even stocks that once played a role in supporting the index have also begun to cool down. However, looking at the stock level, many codes have corrected deeply before and many stocks have returned to the bottom of the last 6-12 months.
The current market has not shown signs of medium-term trend reversal, but there is also not enough basis to be too optimistic in the short term. The point to note is that this adjustment is taking place in a context where liquidity tends to be more cautious and market breadth is differentiated, so investors need to observe the quality of cash flow instead of just looking at the general index score.
The scenario with high probability next week is that VN-Index will continue to test the 1,800 point area in a strong tug-of-war state. This will be an important area to assess the strength of bottom-fishing demand. If this threshold is maintained, the market may gradually form a more balanced price base. Conversely, if the 1,800 point mark is broken, cautious sentiment will increase and extend adjustment pressure, with support near the 1,750 - 1,760 point area.
In the context of a still cautious general market, the Q2/2026 business results season will be an important factor to attract cash flow attention. Cash flow will prioritize businesses with substantial profit growth, the ability to maintain profit margins and clear prospects in the second half of the year, instead of just relying on short-term expectations.
The first group is banks with good asset quality, still with stable credit growth, appropriate bad debt coverage and capital cost control ability. In an environment where interest rates may be under pressure, investors will select more carefully in the banking group, prioritizing banks with good capital foundations and low asset quality fluctuations, especially banks that can access foreign capital flows.
The second group are industries with the ability to attract foreign currency such as industrial park real estate, logistics, export because this is a group that is likely to receive support policies from the Government in the coming time to serve the goal of increasing the country's foreign exchange reserves.
This is also a group with good resistance to high domestic inflation due to the main source of income being USD. FDI and PMI data in May as well as the first 5 months of the year are supporting this group. For the export group, investors need to choose businesses with diverse export markets, good inventory management and less risk from input cost fluctuations.
