April 2026 marks an important turning point for the Vietnamese stock market when it shifted from a "defensive" to a "explosive" state thanks to information from FTSE Russell confirming that Vietnam passed the rating and officially upgraded in September 2026.
Closing the last trading session of April, VN-Index recorded a decrease of nearly 22 points, recreating the scenario of tug-of-war, alternating increases and decreases often seen in the closing days of the month.However, this short-term correction did not overshadow the overall picture.
The market representative index closed at 1,854 points, completing a brilliant trading month.In general, in April, VN-Index broke through nearly 180 points, equivalent to an impressive increase of 10.7% compared to the previous month.
The core driving force for the increase in the past month came from the leadership of the Vingroup stock group and the consensus of some pillar codes, thereby creating a solid support for domestic investor sentiment.
Regarding liquidity, the average trading value in April decreased by 20% compared to March when it only averaged more than 24,300 billion VND.Liquidity decreased partly due to high deposit interest rates in the month (commonly 8-9% and sometimes reaching 10% for some long terms) causing cash flow to partly return to the savings channel.
In a recent updated report, analysts from Nhat Viet Securities Company (VFS) said that in May, investors should not open new positions when liquidity is still low, focus on ecosystem stocks, and find buying points when adjusting to a reasonable zone.
The analysis group offers 2 market scenarios in May. The first scenario VFS offers is that VN-Index surpasses the resistance zone of 1,877 and continues the upward trend, but with weak liquidity, pillar stocks will still be the leading group.
In the second scenario, the VN-Index is forecast to retest the 1,800 or deeper zone if the geopolitical conflict situation shows no signs of cooling down.
VFS's analysis team believes that the stock ratio should be maintained at 60-70% and be cautious with stocks that have increased sharply along with the profit-taking pressure "Sell in May" often seen after the Q1/2026 reporting season.At the same time, investors also need to continue to monitor exchange rate developments and Middle East geopolitical tensions, which are still "bars" that potentially risk inflation costs pushing.
The question that investors are most concerned about now is what factors can trigger the return of large cash flows and improve market breadth in the near future?
The first factor from the perspective of experts is that there needs to be a macro story or strong enough policy to stimulate confidence.For example, credit is clearly accelerating, interest rates are maintaining favorablely, public investment is disbursed strongly, or market upgrade information has more specific progress.However, these factors need time to reflect into business profits and actual capital flows.
The second factor is that foreign investors need to reduce net selling pressure. In the context of a high market, if foreign investors continue to net sell large stocks, domestic investor sentiment will be affected.Domestic cash flow may still participate, but will usually be more cautious and prioritize short-term trading instead of holding longer.The third factor is that business results must be convincing enough.
The market is no longer in the overvalued zone, so investors will demand confirmation from business profits.If Q1 business results or Q2 prospects do not create positive surprises, cash flow will be difficult to return strongly, especially in groups that have increased before expectations.
