2025 is the final year of implementing the 5-year growth target 2020 - 2025. This year is also the year to lay the foundation for the Government's ambitious growth target in the next phase "Strive for GDP growth of 10% or more by 2045, aiming to become a high-income country by 2045".
KBSV believes that the Government will continue to maintain loose fiscal and monetary policies to boost GDP growth, forecast to reach 7% in 2025. As a result, endogenous drivers - which have slowed down in 2024 - will recover and contribute more strongly to the growth momentum of the economy from 2025.
Regarding public investment, KBSV expects that the Government's promotion of public investment in 2025 will be highly effective when the disbursed capital is expected to reach VND 790,727 billion, an increase of 17% compared to 2024, equivalent to 7% of GDP 2024. The biggest barriers causing delays in disbursement of public investment capital will also be removed thanks to the reform and amendment of legal regulations applied from 2025.
In addition, Vietnam’s public debt and debt from the guaranteed sector are at 37% of GDP – significantly lower than the public debt ceiling (60%) set by the Government. This gives Vietnam more room to increase its leverage ratio, supporting public investment spending, especially many key public investment projects in the 2025-2030 period that are under implementation.
With positive results in 2024, many international organizations have also raised their forecasts for Vietnam's GDP growth compared to before. For example, in the "Global Economic Prospects" report published in January 2025, the World Bank (WB) predicted that Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 would reach 6.6%. This figure is 0.1 percentage points higher than the forecast this organization made in October 2024.
According to a report released in January 2025 by United Overseas Bank (UOB), it raised its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth this year to 7% from the previous 6.6%. The decision came after the economy grew 7.09% last year, far exceeding the market consensus of 6.7% and the official target of 6.5%.
"We expect positive developments from domestic drivers such as manufacturing, consumer spending and tourist arrivals to contribute to activities, especially in the first half of the year," UOB said in the report.
These factors are compounded by a more positive external outlook, with UOB expecting the US government – Vietnam’s largest export market – to implement additional tariffs in a more measured and flexible manner.
However, according to experts, to achieve the growth target, Vietnam also needs to manage risks such as inflationary pressure, global market fluctuations and environmental factors. Monitoring policies and response measures is very important.
