In today's trading session (July 29), many large-cap stocks simultaneously increased sharply, helping VN-Index regain the psychological milestone of 1,700 points after many sideways sessions.
At the end of the session, VN-Index increased 24.06 points, equivalent to 1.43%, to 1,704.68 points. The VN30-Index increased by 24.77 points, equivalent to 1.36%, to 1,849.12 points.
However, liquidity has not yet shown a corresponding improvement, reflecting that cash flow is in a probing state. In today's trading session, liquidity on HOSE only reached nearly 14,837 billion VND, down more than 25% compared to yesterday's session. Foreign investors continued to net buy slightly when the buying value reached more than 1,871 billion VND, while selling nearly 1,760 billion VND.
The market's upward momentum came from the Vingroup stock group. In which, VRE shares increased to the ceiling price of 22,750 VND/share, matching more than 8.3 million shares and still having a ceiling price buy order of more than 1.5 million units. VHM shares increased by 6.14% to 140,000 VND/share, matching nearly 6.6 million units.
VIC shares increased by 2.62% to VND 219,400/share, while VPL increased by 3.22% to VND 76,900/share. This group of shares contributed more than 17.6 points to the increase of VN-Index. In addition, support also came from many other bluechips such as MWG increasing by 3.58%, FPT increasing by 3.33%, HPG increasing by 3.1%,...
In the opposite direction, adjustment pressure only focused on some bank stocks, in which SHB decreased the most in the VN30 basket, but it was not enough to stop the market's upward momentum. In terms of liquidity, SHB led with more than 47 million shares traded but decreased by 1.75% to 11,200 VND, which is the stock that decreased the most in the VN30 basket. Followed by HPG with more than 36 million units and VIX with more than 24 million units.
SHS Securities Company believes that the current valuation range of the market is at a reasonable level, and at the same time believes that if the market continues to decline, this will be an attractive capitalization range for investors. Many businesses with good fundamentals, maintaining growth are trading with P/E ratios of only about 4-8 times with a low P/B level, creating opportunities to consider investment. However, the big difference compared to previous periods is that the ratio of margin lending balance on market capitalization is currently very high.
Regarding the short-term trend, SHS assesses that VN-Index is still in a weakening state after losing important support zones such as the 200-session moving average and the psychological level of 1,750 points.
According to the basic scenario, if the sell-off pressure continues to increase, VN-Index may retreat to the 1,670-1,700 point area, corresponding to the lowest price range of April 2026, before recovering back to the 1,770-1,800 point area.
In a more negative scenario, if the pressure to sell off has not cooled down and selling pressure spreads to the Vingroup stock group, SHS believes that VN-Index may adjust to the 1,600 point zone before forming a bottom and recovering.
Assessing market prospects, SHS believes that there are still many supporting factors such as the economy maintaining good growth with a GDP target of over 10% in 2026, inflation cooling expectations, short-term interest rate levels stabilizing, and the market officially being upgraded, thereby opening up expectations that foreign investors will end the prolonged net selling streak. In addition, the market capitalization scale is still considered relatively attractive compared to the growth rate of the economy.
In the opposite direction, the securities company noted some risky and uncertain factors including continued geopolitical tensions in the world, tariff pressures that may increase again and narrow trade flows in 2026.In addition, SHS believes that bubbles have formed on many types of assets such as cryptocurrencies, gold - silver and precious metals, AI, while real estate prices are falling.In particular, the margin lending ratio in the market is still very high.
