VN-Index had a technical recovery session yesterday (July 14), however, due to low liquidity, this upward reversal session did not bring many positive signals confirming the trend reversal.
Entering this morning's trading session, selling pressure overwhelmed from the beginning of the session, causing VN-Index to decrease by more than 20 points, returning to test the support zone of 1,780-1,800 points. Liquidity still maintained at a low level as investors still maintained a cautious mentality in the face of negative information from outside, especially the hot Middle East conflict returning and the Ormuz Strait once again being blocked.
Closing the morning session on July 15, VN-Index decreased by 15.56 points with a total trading volume of only 191 million units, value of 5,263.6 billion VND. Red color spread on the electronic board with more than 213 declining codes, while less than 70 increased codes. The VN30 basket still only had 3 faint green colors at STB, LPB and VNM, along with SSI, SSB and ACB standing at the same price, the rest all decreased.
In which, in addition to VIC narrowing significantly, VHM still decreased by nearly 2.3%, VJC decreased by more than 2.3%, while FPT eased the decline by losing nearly 2.6%, the strongest decrease in VN30, and also the code with the largest matched volume on HOSE with 11.6 million units.
Meanwhile, PNJ shares, after unexpectedly increasing to the ceiling price yesterday, were heavily sold again this morning, at one point falling to the floor price of 43,650 VND, before closing at 44,000 VND, down 6.2%.
According to the assessment of Asean Securities Company (CTCK), technically, VN-Index is facing a state of stalemate as technical recovery efforts in the recent session have not been enough to push the index up while cash flow is still cautious. The main downtrend has not been broken, making the market scenario of fluctuating accumulation in a narrow range at the 1,800-1,810 point area the most feasible before establishing a clearer trend.
With this context, Asean Securities Company believes that the optimal strategy for short-term investors is to maintain an average ratio, avoid chasing purchases in recovery phases and focus on trading in the range of 1,800-1,830 points, while prioritizing stock groups with their own story such as state capital divestment, market upgrades or key infrastructure and energy projects. In parallel, medium and long-term investors should take advantage of support zone adjustments to partially disburse into industry groups with solid fundamentals and high liquidity such as banking, securities, retail, public investment and oil and gas.
SHS Securities Company believes that the market's balanced price range according to VN-Index is 1,750-1,780 points. This is a relatively reasonable valuation range of the market today based on the prospect of the economy still growing well.
The market is starting to gradually differentiate based on the expectation of Q2/2026 business results. However, the market does not have many good growth opportunities, the short-term market quality has not improved with most industry groups accumulating and adjusting.
In the current context, investors should still maintain caution in short-term transactions, limit chasing purchases when the recovery has not shown signs of consensus for sustainability and discipline in using leverage. However, for medium and long-term positions, investors can still prioritize accumulating stocks of businesses with solid fundamentals, benefiting from the current macroeconomic policy context and expected to have positive business results in the second quarter and the second half of the year such as banking, retail consumer goods, construction materials...
