At the "The Year Ahead 2026" event organized by Bloomberg Businessweek Vietnam on April 10, Mr. Suan Teck Kin, Director of Market Research and Global Economics at UOB Bank (Singapore), presented a comprehensive picture of the trend of reshaping global trade, risks related to tariffs, and pointed out strategic drivers helping Vietnam raise its position in the regional and global value chain.
In 2026, the World Trade Organization forecasts global trade growth to reach about 1.9%. Mr. Suan warned that prolonged geopolitical tensions in the Middle East along with high energy prices could reduce global trade growth by up to 0.5 percentage points, through increased transportation costs, disruptions to air and sea routes, weakening tourism and trade demand. Conversely, the sustainable increase in demand related to AI is expected to be an important driving force.
Diversifying export markets is no longer an option, but a strategic requirement, requiring Vietnam to maximize the exploitation of 16 signed free trade agreements, including CPTPP, RCEP, EVFTA, and expand to fast-growing import markets.
Mr. Suan emphasized Vietnam's solid position in the field of electronics and semiconductors, which is the foundation for reaching higher value segments in the value chain. Currently, Vietnam ranks 8th globally in exporting products related to electronics, with more than 170 foreign-invested semiconductor projects, mainly focusing on chip design and packaging and testing.
These advantages create a launching pad for Vietnam to participate more deeply in high-value segments such as advanced packaging and testing, precision electronic components, materials and production tools, industrial AI applications, automation in manufacturing, and logistics.
Regarding the prospects for 2026, Mr. Suan said that UOB maintains a cautious positive stance towards Vietnam. Although GDP growth shows signs of slowing down, economic activity is still supported by the fields of manufacturing, construction, services, along with the strong growth of exports and FDI,...
