This afternoon, July 3rd, Mr. Hoang Phuc Lam - Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting gave the latest analysis on the developments and impacts of storm No. 1.
Sir, what is the forecast scenario for storm No. 1's path in the coming days?
- This afternoon, July 3rd, the strongest wind near the storm center is strong at level 8-9, gusting at level 11; the storm is moving slowly in a West-Northwest direction at a speed of about 7 km/h. The storm is still likely to change direction of movement.
Currently, Typhoon Maysak is operating in a relatively favorable environment to maintain and develop intensity, with a sea surface temperature of about 30 degrees Celsius and low altitude wind shear conditions. However, the direction and speed of the typhoon's movement in the coming days will depend heavily on the diễn biến of the subtropical high pressure.
Therefore, the storm's trajectory is still likely to change and forecasts between models are not yet completely consistent.
The scenario with the highest probability (over 70%) is that the subtropical high pressure will slowly recede to the East, the storm moves in a North-Northwest direction, passing through the Northern Gulf of Tonkin area and advancing north of Quang Ninh province before entering the southern area of Guangxi province (China).
According to this scenario, the Gulf of Tonkin (including Bach Long Vi, Van Don, Co To, Cat Hai special zones and Hon Dau island) has winds of level 8-9, gusts of level 11; Coastal areas of Quang Ninh, Hai Phong and Hung Yen have winds of level 6-7, near the storm center level 8, gusts of level 10.
Another scenario is that the subtropical high pressure weakens faster, causing the storm to mainly shift direction to the North and enter the Guangxi area (China). At that time, the wind on the mainland of the North will be weaker and rainfall in the Northeast will also decrease, but the Gulf of Tonkin will still be affected by strong winds and rough seas.
Which area will be the focus of impact from storm No. 1 and when will the storm affect it, sir?
- This storm has three main impacts that need special attention.
Very strong sea waves, high risk for ships and boats. From July 3rd, the sea area northwest of the East Sea (including the Hoang Sa special zone), the sea area northeast of the area from southern Quang Tri to Quang Ngai and then the Gulf of Tonkin will have strong winds of level 6-7, near the storm center level 8-9, gusts of level 11; sea waves 2.0-4.0m high, very strong sea waves.
Dangerous weather conditions can cause capsizing, sinking or damage to fishing boats, transport boats, tourist boats and vehicles operating at sea; affecting fishing and aquaculture activities, boat anchorage areas and maritime activities.
The coast of Quang Ninh - Hai Phong - Hung Yen is affected by strong winds, high waves and rising water. From the afternoon of July 4, the coastal areas of Quang Ninh, Hai Phong and Hung Yen provinces are likely to experience strong winds of level 6-7, near the storm center level 8, gusts of level 10.
Sea waves 2-3m high combined with storm surges of about 0.2-0.4m can cause localized flooding in some river mouth areas, low-lying coastal areas; and also affect dyke, embankment systems, coastal works, traffic and power grids.
The Northeast needs to be wary of heavy rain, thunderstorms, tornadoes, flash floods and landslides. Due to the influence of the storm's circulation, from the night of July 3 to the end of July 5, the Northeast region will have common rain of 100-150mm, especially the Northeast region 200-300mm, locally over 500mm.
Rain concentrates in Lang Son, Quang Ninh, Hai Phong and Bac Ninh.
With such impacts, what recommendations do you have for the people?
- It is noteworthy that there is a possibility of strong thunderstorms accompanied by tornadoes, lightning and gusts of wind, which can cause green trees to fall, roofs to be blown off, works to be damaged, affecting the electrical system, communication and potentially causing unsafety for people.
Prolonged heavy rain combined with strong thunderstorms increases the risk of flooding in urban areas and low-lying areas; floods on small rivers and streams; flash floods and landslides in mountainous areas, affecting traffic, production and people's lives.
Although current forecasts show a high possibility that the storm will not go deep into our country's mainland, the storm's circulation can still cause significant impacts on the sea, coastal areas and the Northeast region. In particular, thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning and strong gusts of wind may occur before, during and after the storm's center passes through, causing damage to houses, green trees, power systems, infrastructure and affecting outdoor activities.
Thank you very much, sir!
