The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has forecast the weather trend for the seasonal period (from October 2026 - March 2027). In which, noteworthy information is the forecast of ENSO trend and the activity of storms and tropical depressions in this year's storm season.
Currently, the El Nino state is at a very strong intensity threshold. The sea surface temperature deviation in the equatorial Central and Eastern Pacific regions in the second week of September 2026 is at 2 degrees Celsius.
It is forecasted that in the period from October to December 2026, the El Nino state is likely to reach very strong intensity with a very high probability of 98% and higher than the forecast for the same period last month at 5%. In which the probability of El Nino reaching strong intensity is only 2%.
In the period from January to March 2027, the El Nino phenomenon will continue to maintain very strong intensity, but the probability is lower than in the period from October to December 2026. It is likely that the El Nino phenomenon will continue to last until the first months of summer 2027.
ENSO is one of the important bases in forecasting climate trends, especially the storm and flood season globally and in Vietnam.
Under the impact of El Nino, it is forecast that from October to December 2026, storms/tropical depressions operating in the East Sea area and affecting our country are likely at a lower level than the multi-year average. According to multi-year average data, from October to December, there will be about 4.5 storms/tropical depressions in the East Sea, with 1.9 making landfall.
From January to March 2027, there is little chance of storms/tropical depressions appearing in the East Sea area. According to multi-year averages, there are about 0.6 storms/tropical depressions in the East Sea, with no storms making landfall.
Previously, from July 2026 to now, 5 storms and 2 tropical depressions have appeared in the East Sea area; including 2 storms (storm No. 1 Maysak storm No. 4 Narra) and 1 tropical depression (September 12) affecting Vietnam.
In the year of El Nino, there are usually fewer storms in the East Sea area as well as direct impacts on land compared to the average of many years, but the risk of natural disasters related to storms is still very high. It is necessary to be wary of complex trajectories as well as strong storm intensity or more unusual than in previous years.
The meteorological agency noted that seasonal forecasting information is trend forecasting in nature. The meteorological agency especially emphasized that in the context of climate change, weather, and climate are increasingly complicated with many dangerous and extreme forms such as heavy rain in a short time, flash floods, landslides...
Therefore, it is proposed to regularly update and integrate forecast information and hydrometeorological warnings in 1-3 day short-term bulletins, to promptly adjust production plans and appropriate response plans, especially reservoir operation plans, ensuring the safety of works and downstream areas, and at the same time ensuring safety for production and people's livelihoods.
