The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has forecast the weather trend for the seasonal period (from April to September 2026). In which, noteworthy information is the forecast of ENSO trend and the activity of storms and tropical depressions in the first months of the season.
Regarding ENSO developments, according to Mr. Nguyen Duc Hoa - Deputy Head of the Climate Forecasting Department, National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, currently, ENSO is in a La Nina state.
It is forecasted that in the next three months, the ENSO phenomenon is likely to gradually shift to a neutral state with a probability of 80 - 90%, while the La Nina state decreases to below 10%" - Mr. Hoa said.
According to the Deputy Head of the Climate Forecasting Department, in the period from July to September 2026, ENSO tends to shift to El Nino phase with a probability of about 60-70%, while neutral phase decreases with a probability of about 20-30%, La Nina phase is forecast to be at a very low level.
ENSO is one of the important bases in forecasting climate trends, especially the storm and flood season globally and in Vietnam.
Regarding the storm season, Mr. Nguyen Duc Hoa said that from April to June 2026, storms/tropical depressions operating in the East Sea area and directly affecting the mainland are equivalent to the multi-year average. Usually, the storm season in Vietnam starts around June.
According to multi-year average data in the East Sea in the period from April to June, there are about 1.8 storms/tropical depressions, making landfall 0.3 storms.
From July to September 2026, the activity of tropical cyclones will increase. It is forecast that the number of storms/tropical depressions in the East Sea and making landfall in our country will be equivalent to the multi-year average. According to multi-year average data from July to September in the East Sea, there are about 6.5 storms/tropical depressions, making landfall about 2.9 storms.
According to Mr. Mai Van Khiem - Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Department of Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, it is forecasted that in 2026, the atmosphere-ocean system will undergo many phase transition states.
With the continuous phase transition nature of such a large-scale ENSO phenomenon, atmosphere-ocean conditions will be unstable. This may be the cause of extreme weather and climate phenomena such as strong storms, heavy rains... appearing in 2026" - Mr. Khiem analyzed.
Seasonal weather forecasting information is trend forecasting in nature. The meteorological agency especially emphasized that in the context of climate change, weather, and climate are increasingly complicated with many dangerous and extreme forms such as heavy rain in a short time, flash floods, landslides...
Therefore, it is proposed to regularly update and integrate forecast information and hydrometeorological warnings in 1-3 day short-term bulletins, to promptly adjust production plans, appropriate response plans, especially appropriate reservoir operation plans, ensuring the safety of works and downstream areas, and at the same time ensuring safety for production and people's livelihoods.
