Mr. Hoang Phuc Lam - Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, Department of Meteorology and Hydrology has provided the latest assessments of the El Nino phenomenon.
Sir, El Nino has officially formed. What is the probability of developing into a very strong El Nino?
- Current forecasts show that El Nino will continue to strengthen from now until the end of 2026 and may extend to the beginning of 2027. Currently, the probability of El Nino appearing with very strong intensity is about 60 - 65%, with developments similar to El Nino in 2023 and intensity equivalent to the El Nino event in 2015-2016 and may be in the strongest group since 1950.
Looking back at the strong El Nino waves in meteorological history, what impacts have they caused in Vietnam, sir?
- Looking back at history, strong El Nino waves often leave very clear impacts on weather, climate and natural disasters in Vietnam. Most recently, the 2015–2016 El Nino wave, is considered one of the strongest El Nino events since 1950, with intensity equivalent to strong El Nino waves that occurred in 1982–1983 and 1997–1998.
The most prominent impact in the period 2015-2016 was the prolonged and severe heat wave. 2015 recorded a particularly intense widespread hot season. The longest hot spell of the year in the Central Coast region has surpassed the 2014 record, lasting up to 32 days in the South Central Coast, 36 days in the Central Central Coast and 39 days in the North Central Coast.
During this heat wave, the highest temperature in the North Central region is commonly from 39-41 degrees Celsius, of which the highest temperature in 2015 recorded at Con Cuong station (Nghe An) reached 42.7 degrees Celsius on May 30.
Along with that, widespread rainfall shortages have led to severe drought. From the end of 2015 to the beginning of 2016, prolonged rainfall decreased, causing flow on many river systems in the Central, Central Highlands and Southern regions to be significantly depleted. Saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta appeared early, encroaching deep into the fields and causing many difficulties for agricultural production as well as people's lives.
Meanwhile, storm activity in the East Sea has a clear downward trend. In 2015, only 5 storms and 2 tropical depressions were recorded operating in the East Sea, equivalent to about 50% compared to the multi-year average. Among them, only 2 storms directly affected our country's mainland and the intensity when making landfall was not strong, mainly causing winds of level 7-8.
Developments in the period 2015–2016 show that the most worrying impact of El Nino on Vietnam is often prolonged heat, lack of rain, drought and saltwater intrusion, along with the number of storms tending to decrease compared to the multi-year average.
What is the forecast for El Nino to affect the weather and climate in Vietnam in the coming months, sir?
- Forecast, the temperature in regions nationwide is forecast to be 0.5-1.5 degrees Celsius higher than the multi-year average in the last months of 2026, especially in October-December. 2026, the temperature may even be 1-2 degrees Celsius higher.
Therefore, in the remaining summer month of 2026, hot sun will continue to appear more than the multi-year average in the Northern and Central regions and temperature values that exceed history may be recorded.
In addition, El Nino often causes rainfall shortages in most regions of the country, commonly from 25 to 50% (most clearly in the South Central Coast, Central Highlands and Southern regions). Therefore, there is a high risk of localized or widespread drought in places with high water demand for production and living.
However, in El Nino conditions, rainfall tends to decrease but records of the largest rainfall may appear in 24 hours. For example, the historic heavy rain at the end of July 2015 in Quang Ninh was during El Nino; the historic flood at the end of September 2009 after storm No. 9 (Ketsana) in Quang Nam - Quang Ngai provinces.
Although the number of storms and tropical depressions affecting Vietnam is usually less than in El Nino years, very strong storms that cause great damage can still appear. Therefore, we cannot be subjective about the risk of natural disasters in the coming time.
Thank you very much, sir!
