At the beginning of next week, August 26, the 2024 US Open tennis tournament ( US Open ) will kick off the main round. Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite to win this year's US Open, while Coco Gauff is the defending champion in women's singles, but a supercomputer puts them as outsiders for the final Grand Slam title in the year. year.
This year, Alcaraz won two of the three major tournaments, the French Open and Wimbledon. Besides, he also finished second at the 2024 Paris Olympics.
The remaining Grand Slam title belongs to Jannik Sinner, when he was crowned at the Australian Open in the season-opening Grand Slam event at Melbourne Park. Meanwhile, Novak Djokovic has not had a Grand Slam yet, but he has a men's singles gold medal at Paris 2024.
Heading into the Grand Slam at Flushing Meadows, Sinner will be the No. 1 seed as he leads the ATP rankings. The Italian has also won the most titles (4) and has the best win-loss record (44-5) since the beginning of the year until now.
With Alcaraz, his result is 38-7, with 3 titles, Djokovic's result is 29-7 and has no titles on tour.
Unlike the 2024 Olympics or some other tournaments, the Grand Slam takes place in the format of 5 sets to 3 wins, so experts and many bookmakers think that Alcaraz has the biggest advantage at the 2024 US Open.
However, according to Sportsbook Review's supercomputer, the Spanish tennis player is only ranked 3rd in terms of chances, behind Sinner and Djokovic.
The supercomputer said that the 23-year-old tennis player has a 38.7% chance of winning the championship, while Djokovic - who must defend the title, has a 36.8% chance.
As for Alcaraz - who won his first Grand Slam at Flushing Meadows when he lifted the trophy in 2022 - is third with 18.2%. The other candidate in the race is 2021 champion Daniil Medvedev, who is almost out with just a 5.8% chance.
To come up with these odds at the US Open, supercomputer simulations more than 2,000 times with the players' history, Elo ratings and current odds are used to predict the winner.
In the women's singles event, despite failing at both the 2024 Olympics (winning a bronze medal) and the recent Cincinnati tournament, Iga Swiatek is considered the best candidate to win the US Open championship for the second time.
The Polish player has a win-loss record of 50-6 and has won five titles this year, including the French Open.
The world's No. 1 female tennis player won the US Open in 2022 and according to the supercomputer, she has a 50.3% chance of winning the sixth Grand Slam of her career, far exceeding the chances of Elena Rybakina (currently ranked fourth on WTA rankings), with 16.5%.
After winning at the Cincinnati Open, Aryna Sabalenka has a record of 39-11 with 2 titles this year. She is highly appreciated by the bookmakers, but the supercomputer ranked the Belarusian tennis player third (12.9%).
Defending champion Gauff has even less chance, with just 3.5%. Gauff has struggled in recent months, losing in the third round of the 2024 Olympics, the third round of the Canadian Open and the second round of the Cincinnati Open.
