These rapid changes both open up opportunities and pose major challenges for global airlines.
The reversal of the Middle Eastern "big guys
Before the conflict broke out, Middle Eastern airlines such as Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways had risen strongly. Taking advantage of their geographical location between the three continents, these airlines built modern transit centers in Dubai and Doha to attract passengers thanks to competitive fares. Emirates alone served up to 55.6 million passengers in 2025, making Dubai the busiest international airport in the world.
However, this situation changed immediately when the Iran war broke out. The airspace closure caused a series of flights to be canceled or diverted, seriously disrupting the operations of regional airlines. While Qatar Airways suffered the heaviest decline, the decline in regional transport capacity created space for Western rivals.
Western companies seize the opportunity
Seizing the opportunity, European airlines such as Deutsche Lufthansa, British Airways and Air France-KLM have deployed more aircraft to the Indian, Thai and Singapore markets to attract passengers looking for alternatives. However, maintaining sustainable growth momentum in the long term is still a difficult problem.
In the US, airlines recorded the largest capacity increase. United Airlines and Delta Air Lines increased long-haul flights by 11% and 12% respectively. The war also increased the attractiveness of direct flights between the US and Asia, while transatlantic routes continue to benefit from alliances between the US and Europe, according to The Japan Times.
Despite the opportunity to expand, airlines still face many barriers. Fuel costs are rising sharply due to energy market fluctuations, putting heavy pressure on profit margins.
European airlines are forced to consider between increasing fares or accepting profit reductions to retain passengers. The shortage of fuel-efficient wide-body aircraft and the prolonged preparation time for new routes also limit the ability to adapt.
Unpredictable future
The operation of international air routes is increasingly complex. After having to avoid Russian airspace since 2022, flights between Asia and Europe continue to be affected by the closure of Iranian and Iraqi airspace. Aircraft are forced to travel through narrow corridors in the Caucasus and Central Asia, significantly increasing travel costs and time.
Analysts believe that the opportunity for Western airlines may not last long, because Middle Eastern airlines will soon return to attractive price policies to regain market share.
The global aviation industry is entering a period of strong restructuring, where geographical advantages and flexible adaptability will determine its position in the future.
