The possibility of connecting Russian gas supplies to Europe within the framework of the ceasefire agreement in Ukraine is being actively discussed.
Technically, this is entirely feasible: Ukraine's gas transit system could transport up to 100 billion cubic meters of Russian gas to Europe.
In addition to Ukraine, information about the possibility of connecting Russian gas supplies to the European Union (EU) via Nord Stream is also spreading.
According to the Atlantic Council, Russia is extremely interested in connecting supplies to the European gas market. Since 2021, Russia has lost more than 100 billion cubic meters of gas exported each year to Europe, weakening Gazprom's financial stability.
Gazprom's efforts to shift exports to Central Asia and China have not brought much profit, as gas prices in these regions are up to 2.5 times lower than in Europe.
Moreover, the capacity to export gas via pipelines to these markets is very limited. Currently, Russia can only export 38 billion cubic meters of gas per year to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline.
Russia's capacity to export liquefied natural gas (LNG) has also been severely limited by US sanctions.
To compensate for the loss of the European market, the Russian government has been forced to increase domestic gas prices.
The Russian government and some far-right members in Germany have regularly raised the issue of connecting Russian gas supplies to Germany via the remaining branch of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which has a capacity of 27.5 billion cubic meters per year. However, German authorities have strongly rejected the possibility.
Other Nordic countries, such as Poland and the Baltic countries, have also strongly opposed the restoration of gas flows through Nord Stream, due to concerns about increased mobilization in the Baltic Sea and the risk of Europe re-depending on Russian gas.
The resumption of gas flows through Poland is also difficult to achieve both politically and technically, as the Yamal - Europe pipeline is now almost completely integrated into Poland's domestic gas system and is no longer capable of receiving gas from Russia.
This makes Ukraine the most feasible route to resume Russian gas supplies to Europe.
On the Ukrainian side, the revenue of about 400-600 million USD per year from the transit of Russian gas is a very small figure in the overall economy.
Therefore, resuming Russian gas transit activities needs to be placed in the general context of a long-term ceasefire and peace agreement.
Continuing Russian oil transit and resuming Russian gas transit through Ukraine could help Russia earn up to $12 billion a year.
Therefore, Ukraine has the right to expect not only transit fees of about 200 million USD for oil and 400-600 million USD for gas, but also other significant concession payments from Russia.
The grants are likely to include Ukraine re-taking control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is capable of producing 6 million gigawatt of electricity per year, but Russia has controlled it since 2022.
This will help balance Ukraine's power system, which has been damaged in Russian missile and drone attacks, helping Ukraine no longer import electricity from the EU.
It is worth noting that Russia's control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant does not bring economic benefits because it cannot restart the plant if the Kakhovka reservoir cannot be restored - which is difficult to do without the cooperation of Ukraine.
