Russian oil tankers loaded with oil are congested at sea, with no clear destination. According to ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, Russia exported an average of 3.42 million barrels of oil/day in 4 weeks as of January 11.
This figure decreased by about 450,000 barrels/day compared to the pre-Christmas peak, although only 30,000 barrels/day lower than the period ending on January 4 and still higher than the average of the whole year last year.
The 15th consecutive drop in oil prices, combined with a slight decrease in export production, has pulled the value of Russian oil shipments to a new low since the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict.
The biggest problem Russia is facing now is unloading oil from ships. At least 12 Urals oil tankers are anchored off the southern coast of Oman.
Some ships have been waiting since mid-December 2025 and almost every day there are more ships added. Many other ships also have to wait for weeks further in the Arabian Sea and in many areas off the coast of China.
Delays in shipment, along with more and more ships having to make longer sea voyages to China instead of India, have pushed Russian oil drifting at sea to record highs.
Currently, almost all shipments departing from the port of Murmansk in the Arctic are heading to China. In July last year, about 80% of ships leaving this port still delivered oil to India or Syria.
However, the Syrian market lost after the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad, while Indian customers are avoiding oil from sanctioned Russian companies, including Gazprom Neft and Lukoil - oil exporters from Murmansk.
Pressure on Russia is increasing as the US promotes bills allowing President Donald Trump to sanction countries that buy cheap Russian oil. The White House is also more proactive in preventing the flow of sanctioned oil.
To date, these measures are mainly aimed at Venezuela, along with the seizure of 5 ships related to Venezuelan crude oil flows. The US has not taken similar action against Russian oil tankers, but the "dark fleet" operates very flexibly, with many ships rotating to transport oil to Russia, Iran and Venezuela. At least one of the seized ships once hung the Russian flag.
Meanwhile, oil tankers in the Black Sea continue to become targets of drone attacks. Last week, the Elbus ship flying the Palau flag was attacked about 48km off the coast of Turkey.
This ship appears to be following the southern coastline of the Black Sea - a route considered safer after many ships were attacked in the northern region. More recently, oil tankers were also attacked near the strategic loading point of the CPC pipeline, near the port of Novorossiysk.
These developments take place in the context of Russia's oil production decreasing. In December 2025, Russia's oil production decreased the most in 18 months, nearly 250,000 barrels/day lower than the production quota that Russia committed to within the OPEC+ framework.
