Severe cold in China could boost LNG imports from this country, pushing up international spot market prices. At the same time, winter cold also boosts similar demand in Europe, another large LNG consumer.
According to weather forecasts from the European Center for Medium-Term Forecasting, the temperature will be about 6 degrees Celsius lower than the average in some areas of China this week, and this development is expected to lead to increased LNG imports.
China recorded 12 consecutive months of LNG import reduction from December 2024 to November 2025, when imports recovered thanks to stronger seasonal demand.
Total LNG imports in November 2025 reached 7.17 million tons, according to Kpler's report in December 2025 and forecast to continue to increase in December. LNG imports from Russia doubled in November 2025 to a record high of 1.6 million tons.
In 2024, China recorded a sharp increase in LNG and gas imports through pipelines as Beijing made efforts to supplement its reserves.
In the first half of the year alone, China's total gas imports increased by 14.3% compared to the same period last year, reaching 64.65 million tons. After the period of massive storage, gas imports gradually decreased as storage warehouses operated at full capacity.
Meanwhile, Chinese energy companies have significantly increased domestic gas production as part of efforts to reduce dependence on energy imports. In November last year, China produced 22.1 billion m3, up 7.1% over the same period last year, according to Kpler's report in December 2025.
China's sharp increase in gas production is contributed by the faster-than-expected increase in shale gas production in the Sichuan basin.
Based on that data, energy analysis company Kpler forecasts that China's total output in 2025 will reach 263 billion m3, up to 278.5 billion m3 in 2026. However, this increase may not be enough to meet the increase in seasonal heating demand.
