AidData - a research department at William & Mary University in the US specializing in monitoring lending activities - estimates that Chinese creditors have committed to lend Venezuela 106 billion USD from 2000 to 2018. In addition, calculations also show that there were 44 billion USD of outstanding debt in 2017.
Current estimates of Venezuela's debt to China are also different. Societe Generale estimates the value of Venezuela's unpaid debt to China at about 10 billion USD. This figure is also confirmed by Mr. Brad Parks of AidData. JP Morgan estimates the total debt from 13 billion to 15 billion USD.
Mr. Brad Parks said that it is still unclear whether Venezuela has paid any principal of unpaid loans since 2017 or just paid interest.
Many sources from Venezuelan state-owned oil and gas company PDVSA said that China has given Venezuela a grace period for payments in 2019, allowing debt repayment by crude oil.
PDVSA's internal documents show that Venezuela's crude oil and fuel oil exports to China reach 642,000 barrels per day, with a small part of which being used to pay off debts.
The most recent comprehensive debt statistics released by the central bank of Venezuela in 2019 make it more difficult to determine unpaid debts and whether the country will borrow more or not. In addition, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) - the organization that monitors the economy, debt and development - has not released the comprehensive "Article IV" report on Venezuela since 2004.
Therefore, outside observers do not have complete information, but must rely on information sources, public comments from Venezuelan officials and fluctuations in crude oil exports, the country's main source of revenue.
Mr. Brad Parks of AidData pointed out that most of Venezuela's public debt to China is signed with the Development Bank of China through oil-guaranteed loan agreements.
Money collected from a quantity of oil sent to China has been transferred to an account controlled by Beijing and used to pay debts.
After the US took over Venezuela's oil exports, the US said it would transfer money from Venezuela's oil sales to an account located in Qatar, from which Washington would have to transfer money to Beijing to repay Venezuela's debt.
China's state-owned oil and gas corporation CNPC also has production assets in Venezuela. Sinovensa - CNPC's most important joint venture with PDVSA - pumps about 110,000 barrels of oil per day. How the US will handle these shipments is still unclear.
