Venezuelan oil begins to shift in US calculations

Thanh Hà |

Venezuelan oil, including about 12 million barrels, has been unloaded on tankers, less than 3 weeks after the US took control.

Two large commodity trading groups Trafigura and Vitol are ready to load the above amount of oil to implement contracts with the US government.

Previously, Trafigura and Vitol hired a fleet and set up oil storage locations in many locations in the Caribbean region to serve the plan to bring a maximum of 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to the market. To date, about 1/4 of this oil has been loaded onto ships or completed for transportation.

Oil production at Venezuela's most important oil field decreased by more than 20% after the US imposed naval blockade, paralyzing oil exports, the pillar of Venezuela's economy.

Faced with the presence of US warships, many oil tankers have avoided Venezuelan waters, causing crude oil to be depleted, using up all storages, and forcing Venezuelan state-owned oil and gas company PDVSA to close some exploited wells.

Releasing oil from storage facilities in Venezuela is considered a key step to reviving the country's oil industry. In addition, shipments also play an important role in US President Donald Trump's vision of using Venezuelan oil revenue to rebuild the South American nation's economy.

At Venezuelan ports, the oil discharge rate is forecast to continue to increase as the US government expands trade activities to more companies and oil refineries.

At least 7 oil tankers are expected to unload goods at Caribbean ports, familiar transit points before oil is exported to further markets. Currently, 1 ship has loaded goods at the port off Jose, while 3 other ships are on their way here.

Instead of immediately bringing Venezuelan oil to the global oil market, which is concerned about surplus supply, traders are temporarily storing oil in Curacao, Bahamas and St. Lucia. About 9 million barrels of oil are currently being discharged and stored on these Caribbean islands.

Initially, Trafigura and Vitol exploited oil on offshore anchor ships, then expanded to pumping oil directly from offshore storage yards. This is expected to help PDVSA reduce inventory pressure, creating conditions for the Venezuelan corporation to gradually increase production in the Orinoco Strait - an area considered Venezuela's "oil depot". Oil production in the Orinoco Strait decreased by 23% in the first 2 weeks of 2026 to less than 400,000 barrels/day.

PDVSA's production activities are affected by 2 main factors: the export blockade and the inability to import oil dilutes, used to treat heavy oil from Venezuela before transportation and refining.

The Venezuelan state-owned oil and gas company is also affected by explosions, accidents at infrastructure, and a recent cyber attack that paralyzed the digital system, making employees unable to access computers and management systems.

Thanh Hà
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