Ukraine's blocking of Russian oil flows to Central Europe only affects the oil of Russian private company Lukoil - which supplies up to 40% of Hungary and Slovakia's demand. Meanwhile, Russian oil passing through the Ukrainian pipeline supplied by Russian state-owned companies Rosneft and Tatneft is not affected.
According to Sergiy Sydorenko - co-founder and co-editor of European Pravda, former Ukrainian minister - the supply of oil through the southern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline, running through Ukraine to Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic has been continuous and almost uninterrupted since February 2022 - the time the conflict broke out in Ukraine.
Mr. Sergiy Sydorenko and many other sources affirmed that oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia are not affected by the new sanctions of Ukraine. After Lukoil was sanctioned, Rosneft and Tatneft increased their supply volumes, leaving the total amount of Russian oil delivered to Hungary and Slovakia un affected.
During the Iran oil embargo, the EU granted an exemption for the pipeline to Central Europe, allowing refineries in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary to temporarily receive Russian oil via Druzhba, then sell Russian oil products on the EU market. Ukraine is also a destination for Russian oil products, including gasoline and diesel used by the country's military.
Initially, the Druzhba pipeline was expected to stop completely or reduced Russian oil flows from January 1 if new agreements were reached because oil supplies to Central Europe would change, Mr. Sydorenko wrote in European Pravda.
The beginning of these changes has been seen. The Czech refinery, owned by Polish conglomerate PKN Orlen, has announced a complete stop of consumption of Russian oil after ensuring additional supply via the Trieste- Ingolstadt pipeline.
Similarly, in Slovakia and Hungary, refineries in Bratislava and Szazhalombatta are ready to receive additional supplies from the Adria pipeline connecting to Croatia's Krk island. These refineries, owned by Hungarian oil giant MOL, have planned to import at least 60% of their oil from the Adria pipeline starting in 2025.
A new reality is expected to be seen in the region in 2025: Slovakia and Hungary's refineries will no longer be completely dependent on oil from the Druzhba oil pipeline. Over the past year, Bratislava refinery imported more than 30% of its oil from Adria. Szazhalombatta is similar. However, up to 70% of Russian oil is still transited through Ukraine, of which 40% is provided by Lukoil and the rest is provided by Rosneft and Tatneft.
Ukraine's recent decision to stop Lukoil's oil supplies, while not imposing any restrictions on Rosneft and Tatneft, has raised many questions, Mr. Sydorenko said.
The Ukrainian government has not explained the selective Russian oil flow blockade and has not commented from Brussels, pointing to a lack of coordination with European institutions. The decision to impose sanctions that Ukraine has put forward is also beyond the expectations of the Slovakian and Hungarian governments.
Slovakia and Hungary have raised the issue in the EU, seeking mechanisms to refute Ukraine's decision, but have been rejected. For example, Bratislava depends up to 70% of its supply on the Druzhba pipeline, with 40% being Lukoil. Therefore, Ukraine's decision affects about a quarter of the plant's supply - a headache but not a disaster.
Naftogaz - the national oil and gas company of Ukraine - also publicly stated that in fact, the amount of oil flowing through the Druzhba pipeline has not decreased because Lukoil's oil has been completely replaced by supplies from the remaining two Russian companies.
