The International Energy Agency (IEA) does not expect Russian gas deliveries to Europe via Ukraine to resume in 2025.
The IEA's report on the gas market published on January 21 stated that the IEA does not believe that Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine will resume in 2025.
"Russian gas transit via Ukraine stopped on 1 January 2025 and the forecast does not assume that transit will resume. This development leads to a decrease of 13 billion cubic meters of Russian gas delivered via pipeline to the European Union compared to 2024," the report said.
The overall disruptions will result in a loss of 15 billion cubic metres of Russian gas to Europe in 2025. However, the IEA asserts that the loss of Russian gas flows via Ukraine does not pose a direct threat to the EU's security of supply.
"But the vulnerability of Moldova – which declared a 60-day state of emergency in December, before Russian gas supplies via pipeline were cut off – is significantly greater, requiring close cooperation with regional and international partners to ensure energy security over the winter. In the breakaway region of Transnistria, cuts in heat and hot water supplies to residential consumers have been in place since 1.1," the IEA noted.
According to the IEA forecast, the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine and the high rate of gas withdrawal from storage facilities will lead to Europe needing to increase gas imports this year and tighten the global gas balance.
