The Bank of America (BofA) believes that the gold market will enter a new price increase cycle, which could last until 2026.
In a weekly global metals report recently released by Global Metals Weekly, BofA commodity strategist Michael Widmer said that world gold prices have raken strongly in recent months thanks to a series of resonant macro factors, from loose fiscal policy to concerns about global inflation and increasingly complex geopolitical fluctuations.
Widmer said that although the gold market is in a state of excessive buying, the scale of the recent rally is not outside the rules of gold price cycles since 1970.
He said previous price increases only end when landards change such as after the oil crisis, the years of inflation, or when governments tighten monetary policy.
In the current cycle, BofA said that "US budget deficit and non-traditional macro policies" are creating a strong push for gold. Many of those policies are still in place, so we believe gold will continue to be supported, Widmer said.
Another factor that makes BofA maintain an optimistic view is that investment cash flow in gold is still low compared to the scale of the global financial market. Currently, total investment in gold accounts for only about 5% compared to stocks and bonds, while funds and individual investors are tending to increase the proportion of precious metals in their portfolios.
At the 2025 Global Precious Metals Market Conference of the Lon Don Gold Market Association (LBMA) held from October 26-28, experts also shared a similar perspective.
In a survey conducted at the conference, delegates said they expect gold prices to rise to $4,980.30/ounce at this time next year.
This upward prospect comes as gold has fallen sharply below $4,000/ounce after a wave of sell-offs hit the market after reaching a record high of over $4,360/ounce.
About 40% of experts surveyed at the LBMA conference still believe that gold will be a precious metal asset leading the market until 2026.
During the discussion at the conference, Mr. Wayne Gordon - Global Investment Director of UBS - said that the number of customers holding gold in the bank's portfolio has tripled in just this year. We have adjusted our gold price forecast at least six times this year, and each time, the reality is far beyond expectations, he said.
According to the general assessment, as long as the geopolitical risks, inflation and US budget deficit have not cooled down, the increase in gold prices still has much room.
At 11:02 on October 29, Vietnam time, the world gold price was trading at 3,963.2 USD/ounce, down 0.11%.
Regarding domestic gold prices, as of 9:03 a.m. on October 29, the price of SJC gold bars was trading around VND145.9 - 146.9 million/tael (buy - sell).
The price of 9999 Bao Tin Minh Chau gold rings is listed at 145.9 - 148.9 million VND/tael (buy - sell).
The market may witness more profit-taking
On the other hand, analysts believe that the loss of gold prices to the 4,000 USD/ounce mark is due to optimism in the global financial market after the appearance of positive information about the progress of US-China trade negotiations and the expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates slightly in the coming time. As safe-haven demand decreases, cash flow shifts to risky assets such as stocks, putting gold under strong selling pressure.
The $4,000/ounce mark is currently seen as an important psychological threshold. If prices continue to remain below this level, the market may see more short-term profit-taking before establishing a new trend.
