On June 17 (US time), according to CNBC, world oil prices fell after US President Donald Trump signed an agreement with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to end the conflict in the Middle East.
Brent oil for August delivery fell 1.13%, to 78.65 USD/barrel. Meanwhile, US WTI oil for July delivery fell 1.26%, to 75.82 USD/barrel.
However, the situation still contains many instabilities. According to Reuters, Mr. Trump declared that the US could resume attacks on Iran if Tehran does not comply with its commitments in the agreement.
I don't want that to happen. I want them to do what they have committed to," he said at a press conference.
In the latest monthly oil market report, the IEA said that achieving a long-term solution to the conflict could lead to a sharp increase in oil supply in the near future.
According to the IEA, global oil production in 2026 is expected to decrease by an average of 3.9 million barrels/day, to about 102.4 million barrels/day. However, supply is forecast to recover strongly in 2027, reaching about 110.3 million barrels/day.
The IEA warns that preliminary supply-demand balances for 2027 show the risk of a significant oil surplus appearing in the market.
The organization believes that cooling tensions in the Middle East could help reduce pressure on energy prices and limit the risk of widespread inflation. However, experts remain cautious about the market outlook.
In a recent report, New York Life Investment Management said that the decrease in oil prices does not mean that all risks have disappeared.
According to this organization, oil prices are still higher than before the conflict broke out. In addition, global shipping needs more time to return to normal, while oil inventories and strategic reserves also need to be replenished.
Experts believe that the developments of the US-Iran agreement in the near future will continue to be an important factor affecting oil prices and the prospects of the global energy market.
