On April 6 (local time), the Iraqi National Oil Marketing Agency (SOMO) issued an urgent document urging oil companies to complete the nomination of ships and confirm contract volumes in accordance with the agreed terms.
This move is aimed at maximizing the diplomatic "window" when Iran removes Iraq from the list of transit restrictions on the Gulf's vital maritime route. SOMO affirms that all export ports, including Basrah Oilfield (BOT) and related facilities, are currently fully operational to carry out all unloading programs without any limits.
The restoration of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to help this OPEC member nation revive production, which has fallen sharply, to only about 800,000 barrels per day last month due to the impact of the conflict.
However, market observers believe that the biggest challenge today lies not in Iraq's operating capacity but in the fear of international ship owners. Despite the immunity order from Iran, maritime security risks from the conflict between the US-Israel and Iran coalitions still cause insurance costs to skyrocket, making it difficult to implement SOMO's plans in practice.
The event of Malaysia's Ocean Thunder ship smoothly crossing the strait last weekend is seen as an important test, adding hope for Iraq's recovery plan. However, to bring production back to normal levels, Iraq needs to prove absolute safety for the entire international oil fleet instead of just a few privileged partners.
In the next 24 hours, the reaction from major customers to SOMO's request will be the clearest indication. If international oil fleets simultaneously return to Basrah, the energy market may cool down. Conversely, if ports are still deserted, Iraq will face a longer-than-expected economic crisis.
