On January 11, a drone attack targeted a Russian gas compresssion station in the Krasnodar region - which supplies gas to the TurkStream pipeline to southern Europe.
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, the building and equipment of the gas compressors were slightly damaged. After the incident was resolved, gas transportation activities were carried out normally.
The likelihood of new attacks on TurkStream's infrastructure is quite high, as it is currently the only gas pipeline carrying Russian gas to Europe.
According to the assessment of Turkish expert, chairman of the Turkish Energy Strategy and Policy Research Center (TESPAM) Oguzhan Akyener, in the event of a real sabotage attack, the Russian gas station could need months to repair.
In the event that TurkStream stops shipping Russian gas for many months, gas prices in the EU will increase by 25%. Previously, EU gas prices increased by 20% due to Ukraine's closure and failure to extend the operation of the Russian gas transit route through the country.
"If a solution is not found for this situation in the short term, the price increase could be up to 50-60%, depending on the conditions of the season," the expert told Milliyet.
The TurkStream gas pipeline is more than 930km long, located at the bottom of the Black Sea. Therefore, the gas pipeline is likely to detonate at the seabed.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has revealed that there are efforts to sabotage TurkStream. "Russian ships are protecting these pipeline systems and they are constantly being attacked," he said.
Der Spiegel newspaper cited a reliable source to confirm this information. The German newspaper reported that Valery Zaluzhny - when he was still the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, proposed "expanding the campaign" with the Nord Stream and TurkStream pipelines.
Despite sanctions and declarations of reduced dependence on Russian energy, Russian gas exports to Europe via pipeline are expected to increase by 13.4% in 2024 and reach nearly 33 billion cubic meters, according to the European Gas Transmission System Operators Network.
At the same time, for the first time, the volume of gas transported via TurkStream exceeded the volume of gas transit through Ukraine - with a correlation of 16.7 billion m3 (up 22.3%) and 16.1 billion m3 (up 5.4%).
In 2025, Gazprom is ready to export 25 billion cubic meters of gas to Turkey and 15 billion cubic meters to Europe via TurkStream. Thus, the loss of the gas transit route through Ukraine will be almost completely prevented.
Earlier this week, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that the attack on the TurkStream pipeline constituted an infringement on the sovereignty of countries using the pipeline.
