On January 11, a drone attack targeted a Russian gas compressor station in the Krasnodar region, which supplies gas to the TurkStream pipeline to Southern Europe.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the building and equipment of the gas compressor station were slightly damaged, and after the incident was fixed, gas transportation operations were carried out normally.
The likelihood of new attacks on TurkStream infrastructure is quite high, as it is currently the only gas pipeline carrying Russian gas to Europe.
According to the assessment of Turkish expert, President of the Turkish Center for Energy Policy and Strategic Studies (TESPAM) Oguzhan Akyener, in case of a real sabotage attack, the Russian gas station may need many months to repair.
If TurkStream stops transporting Russian gas for several months, gas prices in the EU will increase by 25%. Previously, EU gas prices increased by 20% due to Ukraine's closure and non-renewal of the Russian gas transit route through its territory.
"If a solution to this situation is not found in the short term, the price increase could reach 50-60%, depending on seasonal conditions," the expert told Milliyet.
The TurkStream gas pipeline is more than 930km long and lies on the bottom of the Black Sea. Therefore, this gas pipeline is likely to explode on the seabed.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has revealed that there are attempts to sabotage TurkStream. "Russian ships are protecting these pipeline systems and they are constantly being attacked," he said.
Der Spiegel cited reliable sources confirming this information. The German newspaper said that Mr. Valery Zaluzhny - when he was the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, proposed "expanding the operation" to the Nord Stream and TurkStream pipelines.
Despite sanctions and statements to reduce dependence on Russian energy, Russian gas exports to Europe via pipeline are expected to increase by 13.4% in 2024 and reach nearly 33 billion cubic meters, according to the European Gas Transmission System Operators Network.
At the same time, for the first time, the volume of gas transported via TurkStream exceeded the volume of gas transited through Ukraine - with a correlation of 16.7 billion m3 (up 22.3%) and 16.1 billion m3 (up 5.4%).
By 2025, Gazprom is ready to export 25 billion cubic meters of gas to Türkiye and 15 billion cubic meters to Europe via TurkStream. Thus, the loss of gas transit through Ukraine will be almost completely prevented.
Earlier this week, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said the attack on the TurkStream pipeline constituted an infringement on the sovereign rights of the countries using the pipeline.
