State gas monopoly BOTAŞ will be able to export around 7 to 8 billion cubic meters of natural gas via Bulgaria to Central Europe under a new brand called "Turkish Blend", mixing gas from different sources, Politico quoted Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar as saying .
While Russia is planned to have 40% of the gas in the Turkish Blend, the actual amount could be much higher, as Russian oil giant Gazprom and BOTAŞ have been discussing details of establishing a Russian gas hub in Turkey since early 2023.
The new gas pipeline will take advantage of the existing extension of the TurkStream pipeline in Europe, as well as a 2023 agreement between Bulgarian gas supplier Bulgargaz, Bulgarian system operator Bulgartransgaz and BOTAŞ, allowing the Turkish company to export around 3.6 billion cubic meters per year to the EU.
And maximizing the TurkStream pipeline network in this way would add another 4 billion cubic meters of disguised Russian gas exports to Europe.
Despite efforts by major European gas consumers to reduce their dependence, Russian gas still accounts for 15% of the EU’s total gas imports, surpassing US LNG deliveries to Europe this year. Put simply, Europe now spends twice as much on Russian energy as it does on aid to Ukraine.
In addition to exporting Russian LNG to Europe, Russian gas via pipelines in Ukraine and TurkStream is also being supplied to Austria, Italy, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Greece, Bulgaria and the Western Balkans.
Politico believes that stopping gas transit through Ukraine and TurkStream at the same time will allow European customers of Russian gas to suspend or renegotiate long-term contracts with Russian oil giant Gazprom.
But while the Ukrainian route could be stopped overnight, stopping TurkStream would be more difficult, according to Politico. TurkStream not only facilitates continued Russian gas exports, but also undermines European diversification by flooding the market with cheap gas.
Turkey's lack of obligation to comply with EU rules further complicates efforts to monitor gas flows across its borders.
