According to Space.com, the debris was mentioned as the core of the Truong Chinh-5B rocket. The rocket carrying the Mong Thien laboratory modules was launched into space from the Van Xuong launch site, on the coast of Hainan Island, southern China, on October 31.
The Mong Thien laboratory modulate is the third and final modulate of the Chinese space station named Thien Cung. Module Mong Thien is paired with 2 modules that were previously launched into orbit at an altitude of 400km, thereby completing the construction of the Chinese space station.
The Thai Geopark and IT Development Agency (GISTDA) said on November 3 that there was a possibility that debris from the 5B School of the Dragon would fall into the country, but the probability was only 1.4%.
The latest observations and models show that debris from the Truong Chinh-5B rocket will fall to the Earth's surface on November 4, but the time errors are huge.
For example, the US corporation Aerospace Corporation predicts that the debris from the ballistic missile will re-enter the atmosphere at 11:20 GMT (18:20 Vietnam time), plus or minus three hours. This period puts some parts of North America, almost all of Central America, much of Africa, part of southeastern Australia, and some other areas at risk.
debris from the Truong Chinh-5B rocket fell back to Earth uncontrollably in all three previous launches, most recently in July, after China launched a missile to send the Van Thien modutes to the Tianjin space station.
According to Space.com, this is a rather inconvenient feature of the Truong Chinh-5B. Other rotary missiles are designed so that their first phase falls into the ocean or passes uninhabited ground immediately after takeoff, or, in the case of SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, fall all of them down for future reuse.
But the core phase of Truong Chinh-5B reached its orbit and had no way to self-control it, so it fell freely back to Earth.
Although most of the missile's body will burn in the atmosphere when it falls, some of the harsher pieces will fall to the ground, posing a risk to people and infrastructure.
"The general rule is that 20-40% of the weight of a large object will fall to the ground, but the exact figure depends on the design of the object," Aerospace Corporation explained, saying that in this case, the debris weighing about 5 to 9 tons are expected to reach the ground.
Normally, such debris could fall into the ocean, as the ocean covers about 70% of the Earth's surface. But debris from the first Truong Chinh-5B launch, in May 2020, appeared to have fallen on a village in the East Sea coast of West Africa.
No one was injured in that incident or in any other crash of the Truong Chinh-5B so far. However, the dropping of missile debris could pose any risk, no matter how small, has sparked criticism from the community.
"Space exploration countries must mitigate the risk to people and resources on Earth when re-entering the atmosphere of space objects and maximize the transparency associated with those activities," NASA director Bill Nelson said in a statement posted shortly before the Truong Chinh-5B debris crash in May 2021.
