President Donald Trump has deployed warships and dozens of fighter jets to the Middle East and has several options that could lead to regional instability.
Will Mr. Trump order a deliberate attack targeting the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, seeking to eliminate the Iranian missile program or even affect the political context in Tehran?
Iran has threatened to take strong retaliation if attacked.
Mr. Trump said on February 19 that he would decide within the next 10 or 15 days whether to order an attack on Iran or not if a nuclear deal is not reached.
Axios news agency reported that a series of military options, including direct attacks on Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have been presented to President Trump.
Mr. Trump has also repeatedly declared prioritizing the diplomatic path leading to an agreement to resolve not only Iran's nuclear program but also Iran's ballistic missile capabilities and Iran's support for Hezbollah and Hamas.
However, Iran has refused to make such concessions.
Recently, the US and Iran held 2 rounds of indirect talks in Oman and Switzerland. These talks did not help the two sides get closer. The next round of talks is expected to continue on February 26 in Switzerland.
President Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff said that Mr. Trump was "surprised" that Iran did not surrender despite the US increasing its large-scale military force.
The Trump administration is very likely to move towards a limited conflict to reshape the balance of power without pushing them into a puddle," said Alex Vatanka, an analyst at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
He believes that the possibility of a short-term military campaign, with a strong impact, to paralyze Iran's missile infrastructure, weaken its deterrent capabilities and re-establish the balance of power after the 12-day war with Israel in June 2025.
The US military currently has 13 warships stationed in the Middle East: the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln with 9 destroyers and 3 frigates.
Many other US warships are on their way. The world's largest ship, the US aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford, passed through the Strait of Gibraltar to enter the Mediterranean on February 20.
In addition to many aircraft parked on aircraft carriers, the US has deployed a powerful force of dozens of fighter jets to the Middle East and tens of thousands of US troops stationed throughout the Middle East region.
Dr. Richard Haass - former chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations - said that it is unclear at what time and scale a conflict will have an impact on the Iranian government.
Arab monarchies in the Gulf region, which are closely linked to Iran, have warned President Trump not to intervene, fearing that these countries could become targets of retaliatory attacks, and being wary of any instability in the region.
Ms. Mona Yacoubian - scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies - noted that the situation in Iran is much more complicated than in Venezuela - the country that the US attacked on January 3 to arrest President Nicolas Maduro.
She noted that Iran has more scattered power centers and an attack on the brain could "really cause a mess inside Iran".
