According to Kitco News on May 28, Citigroup (Citi) has sharply raised its short-term gold price forecast, saying it expects gold prices to fluctuate in the range of 3,100 - 3,500 USD/ounce in the next 3 months alone, instead of 3,000 - 3,300 USD as given in mid-May.
The main reason for this accelerated reversal is a new statement by US President Donald Trump. Mr. Trump threatened to impose a 50% tax on all imported goods from the EU as early as June 1, if the EU does not reach a trade agreement with the US. Although Trump later extended the deadline to July, the uncertainty has spread globally.
Analysts at Citigroup believe that Mr. Trump's moves, although not realized, still expose persistent uncertainty in the global economy, causing investors to rush to gold as a safe haven.
The report also highlighted that investment demand for gold continues to increase despite prices having reached historical highs. Citigroup estimates that about 0.5% of global GDP is spent on gold - the highest rate in the past 50 years.
In particular, demand from India and China has increased steadily, not only in the investment sector but also in jewelry consumption. This is a sign of a market burst out due to uncertainty, not simply due to inflation or crisis, said an expert at Citi.
Despite appreciating the possibility of a new record gold in the short term, Citi retains a careful view of long -term prospects. The bank predicts that gold prices may have difficulties from the end of 2025 to early 2026, when the global economy recovers, especially in the US and Asia; The US Federal Reserve (Fed) begins to cut interest rates and support the stock market - the largest rival of gold; The psychology of accepting the risk of "Risk-on" back, especially when the United States entered the midterm election, making gold less attractive as a shelter.
Although Citi has set a price cap of $3,500, many other financial institutions are more optimistic.
Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Natixis and VanEck all predict gold prices could reach $4,000/ounce, from the end of this year or early 2026.
However, the common point between the forecasts is that gold is still a bright star in the short term, especially when political, trade and geopolitical risks still overshadow the global economy.
