On June 30 (Moscow time), astronomy experts continued to publish new assessments of celestial bodies that may threaten Earth in the future.
According to TASS news agency, the asteroid named 2024 YR4 is currently considered the most dangerous object being monitored by scientists, although the actual risk of collision is still very small.
Mr. Yevgeny Burmistrov, an astronomer at the Russian National Polytechnic University of Perm (PNRPU), said that special attention is being paid to this celestial body because initial calculations show that it is likely to enter the Earth's atmosphere on December 22, 2032.
According to astronomers, an asteroid is only classified as "potentially dangerous" when it orbits Earth at a distance of less than 7.5 million km and is large enough, usually from 50 to 100m.
Currently, the interest of scientists is focused on the newly discovered asteroid named 2024 YR4. Preliminary calculations show that it is likely to enter the Earth's atmosphere by the end of 2032," Mr. Burmistrov said.
He emphasized that if such a celestial body falls to the surface of Earth, the level of destruction could be very serious. The scope of direct impact is estimated to be up to a radius of about 30km, equivalent to the size of a large city.
However, Russian experts affirm that people do not need to worry too much because the probability of a collision is currently only 0.0017%, which is much lower than many other natural risks.
However, scientists are still preparing for the next approach of 2024 YR4 in 2028 to recalculate the orbit with higher accuracy and make more reliable forecasts about the future of this celestial body.
According to Mr. Burmistrov, humanity now possesses initial technologies capable of interfering with the orbits of dangerous asteroids if necessary.
He cited the DART mission of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), in which a spacecraft directly crashed into the asteroid Dimorphos to change its orbit.
The results showed that the orbital cycle of Dimorphos had decreased by about 30 minutes, and the direction of movement of this celestial body also deviated by thousands of kilometers.
That is enough to prevent a dangerous celestial body from colliding with Earth," Mr. Burmistrov said.
Experts believe that early detection and continuous monitoring of asteroids such as 2024 YR4 plays a particularly important role in humanity's planetary defense strategy.
In the future, trajectory adjustment technologies may become key tools to help minimize risks from space threats.
