On May 24, according to Forbes magazine, scientists warned that the Sun may be approaching the risk of a "superflare" - a phenomenon of extremely strong energy eruptions that can have a major impact on technological systems on Earth as well as outer space activities.
A new study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics shows the risk of "S"-level eruptions - i.e., eruptions with intensity exceeding X10 according to the standard measurement of scientists.
According to the research team, the Sun is stepping out of the "Sun's peak" phase, a cycle lasting about 11 years when magnetic field activity becomes strongest. NASA and NOAA scientists previously suggested that the peak period of the current cycle occurs around October 2024.
Data collected in the period 1975-2025 from the geostationary orbital environmental satellite system shows that most solar cycles since the late 1970s have had at least one super eruption heading towards Earth. However, the current solar cycle, also known as the 25th Solar cycle, has not yet recorded a similar phenomenon.
Researchers believe that the Sun may be "overdue" for a S-level super flare in this cycle.
Instead of trying to accurately predict the timing of the phenomenon, the research team built a probability model to identify high-risk periods. Combining machine learning methods, the team discovered two stages with the highest probability of super-outbreaks, including the period from mid-2025 to mid-2026 and the early stage to mid-2027.
Scientists warn that if a super flare occurs and heads straight towards Earth, this phenomenon could damage the satellite, disrupt the GPS navigation system, affect radio communication and even cause widespread power outages.
In addition to impacts on Earth, stronger solar activity is also believed to be able to affect future space exploration plans, especially manned missions to the Moon.
