According to the draw results, Novak Djokovic is unlikely to encounter too many obstacles in the first rounds. The Serbian player opens against Pedro Martinez, an opponent who leans towards clay courts. In the next rounds, Djokovic may face Terence Atmane, Brandon Nakashima or Shang Juncheng - names rated lower for Grand Slam experience.
However, the real challenge for Djokovic is predicted to start from round 4. Potential opponents including Jakub Mensik, Hubert Hurkacz or Tallon Griekspoor all possess a modern, powerful playing style and are capable of putting pressure in long-term matches.
In the quarterfinals, the list of obstacles becomes even denser with Taylor Fritz, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Grigor Dimitrov or Lorenzo Musetti. If he advances to the semi-finals, Djokovic is likely to face Jannik Sinner - a player who has a superior head-to-head record against him for more than two years.
Conversely, Carlos Alcaraz is assessed to fall into a favorable bracket. The world No. 1 player will meet Adam Walton in the first round, before facing moderate opponents in the next rounds. Even in the quarterfinals, names like Alex De Minaur or Frances Tiafoe are still not considered a major threat to Alcaraz in the 5-set format.
Alcaraz's most significant challenge is predicted to only come from the semi-finals, where Alexander Zverev is the most prominent opponent in the bracket. Notably, Alcaraz is not in the same bracket as Djokovic - who eliminated him at the Australian Open 2025.
Australian Open 2026 kicks off from January 18.
