Throughout the history of the World Cup, only 3 teams outside Europe or South America reached the semi-finals - the US in 1930, South Korea in 2002 and Morocco in 2022. Through 22 editions, only 8 countries have ever won the championship and only 13 countries have reached the ticket to play in the final - all from the 2 continents mentioned above. There are explanations.
Time and squad depth
Systematic organization in leading countries has existed for more than a century. They have decades to build a system of academies, domestic leagues, reconnaissance networks, creating a football culture deeply ingrained in their blood. Many generations of coaches pass on the same techniques and philosophies, while academies produce generations of players who grow up with the same unique playing style.
They also often face quality opponents in the qualifiers, while in Asia and Africa, strong teams often only have to play against opponents outside the Top 50, unintentionally reducing their preparation.
The squad of the 4 teams that reached the semi-finals this year has 71 players from clubs playing in the Champions League, mostly from the top 5 leagues in the world. That ecosystem will naturally create many stars who are used to the pressure of playing knockout matches. Meanwhile, Norway, Switzerland and Morocco - 3 "dark horses" reaching the quarter-finals - only gathered 20 players. They may plan to block 1 star, but doing so with 3 or 4 stars at the same time is a completely different problem.
Big teams always have factors that can change the situation. When Spain needs new inspiration, the replacement may have a different playing style, but the quality does not decrease. With underdog teams, their talent pool begins to dry up when considering from player 12 to 26. The expanded squad and the 5-way substitution rule reward the best deep squads.
The barrier also lies in what is required of the players, when they have to fill the level of factors that make them exhausted, the price to pay will accumulate through each round. Meanwhile, the seeded teams can leisurely pass the group stage, comfortably rotate the squad and regenerate energy.
Courage and probability
For big teams, big battle nights are a daily occurrence, that has been going on for decades, and that creates the calmness of a team that defaults to being there. Courage is what pulls them through adversity. For underdog teams, that is too unfamiliar and it is difficult to know how the weight of the tournament will affect the team.
Finally, arithmetic is the harshest barrier. Surviving each round means the next round will be even more difficult. On a beautiful day, any team at the World Cup can defeat another team. But to reach the semi-finals requires 3 consecutive victories and to reach the gold cup requires 5 victories.
Even if a lower-ranked team has a win rate of 2/5 (40%) in each round when facing a seeded team, winning 3 consecutive matches still gives a very low overall probability of about 1/20 (5%).
Paraguay's reward after defeating Germany is having to face the French team.
There are also surprises like Croatia (reaching the final in 2018 and semi-finals in 2022), Morocco reaching the semi-finals in 2022, or Norway reaching the quarter-finals this year. The problem is that underdog teams can launch a punch to knock out opponents on a beautiful day, but launching 4 or 5 consecutive shots like that is not yet possible.
